Lech Poznan v Wisla Krakow prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lech PoznanDrawWisla Krakow

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lech Poznan 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lech Poznan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lech Poznan 60%, draw 22%, Wisla Krakow 18%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Lech Poznan v Wisla KrakowBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Lech Poznan win60%

Draw22%

Wisla Krakow win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Poznan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lech Poznan

Wisla Krakow

9Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 24 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Lech Poznan v Sunderland, Juventus v Rennes, and more: Europa League – liveThe Guardian · 22 Oct 16:15 · Lech Poznan, Sunderland, Juventus, Rennes

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lech poznan winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Lech Poznan a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lech Poznan v Wisla Krakow~~2.05 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 3 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 21~~2 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lech Poznan win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Wisla Krakow win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Lech Poznan or draw	82%	–	–
Lech Poznan clean sheet	35%	–	–
Wisla Krakow clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.5 4.0 2.5 1 8.5 10.4 5.0 2 9.4 9.7 5.1 3 6.5 6.6 3.5 4 3.4 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lech Poznan down, Wisla Krakow across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lech Poznan at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wisla Krakow away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Lech Poznan, 1.05 for Wisla Krakow. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WIS 1–1 LEC · LEC 5–0 WIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 3 Sept

LECH POZNAN

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 6–1

WISLA KRAKOW

DWWLDW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6