Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Lech Poznan 6–1 Korona Kielce LECH POZNAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lech Poznan win~~60%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lech Poznan win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lech Poznan was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
1′KICK-OFF Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce
4′We published Lech Poznan at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Lech Poznan 1–0 Korona Kielce
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Lech Poznan win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
5′Lech Poznan find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–5
6′We published Lech Poznan at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Lech Poznan 2–0 Korona Kielce
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Lech Poznan win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
8′Pablo Rodriguez Delgado scores for Lech Poznan on 6′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lech Poznan 3–0 Korona Kielce
24′23′: Mikael Ishak on the scoresheet for Lech Poznan, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
30′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Korona Kielce · On: Martin Remacle · Off: Ondrej Lingr
44′We published Lech Poznan at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Lech Poznan win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
45′SECOND HALF Lech Poznan 4–0 Korona Kielce
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Radosław Murawski · Lech Poznan
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Korona Kielce · On: Simon Gustafsson · Off: kamil jakubczyk
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Korona Kielce · On: Konrad Matuszewski · Off: Marcel·Pieczek
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Korona Kielce · On: Morgan Faßbender · Off: Michael Ameyaw
48′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Lech Poznan 4–0 Korona Kielce
49′Lech Poznan ahead on 45′ through Pablo Rodriguez Delgado. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
49′HALF-TIME Lech Poznan 4–0 Korona Kielce
54′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Lech Poznan 5–0 Korona Kielce
56′Mikael Ishak scores for Lech Poznan on 55′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
56′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Lech Poznan 5–1 Korona Kielce
58′57′: Camilo Mena on the scoresheet for Korona Kielce, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lech Poznan · On: Daniel Håkans · Off: Patrick Walemark
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lech Poznan · On: Hubert Janyszka · Off: Terry Yegbe
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lech Poznan · On: Gustav Berggren · Off: Radosław Murawski
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Pablo Rodriguez Delgado · Lech Poznan
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Korona Kielce · On: Daniel Bak · Off: Mariusz Stępiński
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lech Poznan · On: Filip Jagiełło · Off: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Daniel Bak · Korona Kielce
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lech Poznan · On: Y. Agnero · Off: Mikael Ishak
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Slobodan Rubezic · Korona Kielce
90′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Lech Poznan 6–1 Korona Kielce
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Morgan Faßbender · Korona Kielce
92′Lech Poznan ahead on 90′ through Y. Agnero. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
92′Full time, 6–1. We called Lech Poznan at 60% — that one lands. 6–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lech Poznan 6–1 Korona Kielce
FTLech Poznan 6–1 Korona Kielce · Lech Poznan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lech Poznan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lech Poznan 60%, draw 24%, Korona Kielce 16%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Lech Poznan v Korona KielceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lech Poznan win60%

Draw24%

Korona Kielce win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Miejski

RefereeLukasz Kuzma

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

Korona Kielce

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lech Poznan

Korona Kielce

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 11 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lis

2 Joel Pereira

72 M. Skrzypczak

59 T. Yegbe

15 M. Gurgul

22 R. Murawski

43 A. Kozubal

10 P. Wålemark

21 Pablo Rodríguez

77 L. Palma

9 M. Ishak

Coach · N. Frederiksen

Substitutes

24 · F. Jagiełło

55 · Piotr Bartczak

90 · H. Janyszka

11 · D. Håkans

5 · G. Berggren

14 · L. Bengtsson

33 · M. Pruchniewski

7 · Y. Agnero

Korona Kielce

4-2-3-1

1 X. Dziekoński

71 W. Długosz

23 S. Rubežić

2 A. Mosór

6 M. Pięczek

35 Kamil Jakubczyk

18 P. Hellebrand

30 C. Mena

32 O. Lingr

19 M. Ameyaw

14 M. Stępiński

Coach · J. Zielinski

Substitutes

86 · Simon Gustafson

87 · R. Mamla

11 · K. Matuszewski

10 · Nono

8 · M. Remacle

24 · B. Smolarczyk

44 · K. Sotiriou

99 · Daniel Bak

22 · M. Faßbender

67 · N. Barczak

9 · S. Davidović

Our number · lech poznan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market61%

Us60%

~~Market~~61%

We make Lech Poznan a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce~~1.91 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 15~~3 v 8

~~The market · Lech Poznan win~~61% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lech Poznan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lech Poznan win	60%	61%	−1
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Korona Kielce win	16%	17%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	61%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Lech Poznan or draw	84%	83%	+1
Lech Poznan clean sheet	41%	–	–
Korona Kielce clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 7.0 4.6 2.5 1 10.7 11.2 4.6 2 11.0 9.7 4.4 3 7.0 6.2 2.8 4 3.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lech Poznan down, Korona Kielce across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,623 Ekstraklasa matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lech Poznan at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Korona Kielce away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Lech Poznan, 0.90 for Korona Kielce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KOR 1–2 LEC · LEC 1–1 KOR · LEC 2–0 KOR · KOR 2–3 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug

LECH POZNAN

WWWLWW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 4–1

KORONA KIELCE

WDWLWL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	+10	26
2	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
3	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Piast Gliwice	11	+2	17
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	−4	12
13	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
14	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6