Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Korona Kielce 1–0 GKS Katowice KORONA KIELCE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Korona Kielce win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Korona Kielce win at 39%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Korona Kielce 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
2′KICK-OFF Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Martin Remacle · Korona Kielce
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Wiktor Długosz · Korona Kielce
40′PENALTY MISSED · 38' Bartosz Nowak · GKS Katowice
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Korona Kielce win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Korona Kielce 0–0 GKS Katowice
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Korona Kielce · On: Simon Gustafsson · Off: Martin Remacle
48′Korona Kielce have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–39–28
48′12 shots for Korona Kielce, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–39–28
48′HALF-TIME Korona Kielce 0–0 GKS Katowice
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Korona Kielce win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–45–26
59′We said Korona Kielce at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–24
65′We said Korona Kielce at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Mateusz·Kowalczyk · GKS Katowice
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' GKS Katowice · On: Adam Zreľák · Off: Ilia Shkurin
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Korona Kielce · On: Morgan Faßbender · Off: Mariusz Stępiński
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Korona Kielce · On: Dawid Błanik · Off: Michael Ameyaw
70′We said Korona Kielce at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Korona Kielce 1–0 GKS Katowice
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Korona Kielce win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Korona Kielce win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 59%)
71′Camilo Mena scores for Korona Kielce on 70′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' GKS Katowice · On: Szymon bartlewicz · Off: Marcel Wedrychowski
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' GKS Katowice · On: Mateusz Wdowiak · Off: Borja Galan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Korona Kielce · On: Konrad Matuszewski · Off: Marcel·Pieczek
76′We said Korona Kielce at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Bartosz Nowak · GKS Katowice
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Kacper Lukasiak · GKS Katowice
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Korona Kielce win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We said Korona Kielce at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' GKS Katowice · On: Arkadiusz Jedrych · Off: Kacper Lukasiak
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' GKS Katowice · On: Erik Jirka · Off: Marcin Wasielewski
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Korona Kielce · On: Bartlomiej·Smolarczyk · Off: Camilo Mena
88′We said Korona Kielce at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Pau Resta · GKS Katowice
94′1–0 at the end. Our 39% on Korona Kielce comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Korona Kielce win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Korona Kielce 1–0 GKS Katowice
FTKorona Kielce 1–0 GKS Katowice · Korona Kielce win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Korona Kielce are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korona Kielce 39%, draw 28%, GKS Katowice 33%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Korona Kielce v GKS KatowiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Korona Kielce win39%

Draw28%

GKS Katowice win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSuzuki Arena

RefereePatryk Gryckiewicz

Line-ups

Korona Kielce

4-3-3

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korona Kielce

GKS Katowice

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
9	Korona Kielce	11	−5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Korona Kielce

4-3-3

1 X. Dziekoński

71 W. Długosz

23 S. Rubežić

2 A. Mosór

6 M. Pięczek

18 P. Hellebrand

8 M. Remacle

35 Kamil Jakubczyk

30 C. Mena

14 M. Stępiński

19 M. Ameyaw

Coach · R. Kolendowicz

Substitutes

87 · R. Mamla

11 · K. Matuszewski

10 · Nono

24 · B. Smolarczyk

86 · Simon Gustafson

99 · Daniel Bak

67 · N. Barczak

7 · D. Błanik

9 · S. Davidović

22 · M. Faßbender

26 · Igor Chmielewski

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

87 G. Kobylak

30 A. Czerwiński

6 L. Klemenz

55 Pau Resta

23 M. Wasielewski

19 K. Łukasiak

77 M. Kowalczyk

8 Borja Galán

10 M. Wędrychowski

17 I. Shkurin

27 B. Nowak

Coach · R. Górak

Substitutes

4 · A. Jędrych

31 · S. Bartlewicz

97 · E. Jirka

1 · M. Kikolski

22 · S. Milewski

14 · M. Olsen

7 · M. Wdowiak

68 · B. Wolski

99 · A. Zreľák

26 · D. Rasak

Our number · korona kielce winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Korona Kielce a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice~~1.43 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~9 v 6

~~The market · Korona Kielce win~~44% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Korona Kielce win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korona Kielce win	39%	44%	−5
Draw	28%	26%	+2
GKS Katowice win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Korona Kielce or draw	67%	70%	−3
Korona Kielce clean sheet	27%	–	–
GKS Katowice clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.7 7.6 5.5 2.4 1 8.4 13.1 7.8 3.4 2 6.7 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.2 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korona Kielce down, GKS Katowice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,629 Ekstraklasa matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korona Kielce at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). GKS Katowice away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Korona Kielce, 1.30 for GKS Katowice. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:16. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KOR 1–1 GKS · GKS 1–0 KOR · KOR 2–1 GKS · GKS 1–2 KOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 4 Sept

KORONA KIELCE

DWLWLL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–6

GKS KATOWICE

LLWWWL0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
6	GKS Katowice	11	+6	18
7	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	+2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	−5	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Cracovia Krakow	11	−3	12
13	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	−15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6