Jagiellonia v Wisla Plock prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JagielloniaDrawWisla Plock

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Jagiellonia 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jagiellonia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jagiellonia 53%, draw 25%, Wisla Plock 21%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia v Wisla PlockBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia win53%

Draw25%

Wisla Plock win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Miejski w Białymstoku

RefereeDamian Kos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jagiellonia

Wisla Plock

3Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 19 Oct · Ekstraklasa

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market47%

Us53%

~~Market~~47%

We make Jagiellonia a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia v Wisla Plock~~1.75 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~12 v 10

~~The market · Jagiellonia win~~47% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jagiellonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia win	53%	47%	+6
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Wisla Plock win	21%	28%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Jagiellonia or draw	79%	72%	+7
Jagiellonia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Wisla Plock clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.4 5.6 3.3 1 10.1 12.0 5.7 2 9.6 9.6 4.9 3 5.6 5.6 2.9 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia down, Wisla Plock across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jagiellonia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wisla Plock away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Jagiellonia, 1.02 for Wisla Plock. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~JAG 1–2 WIS · WIS 0–1 JAG · WIS 2–4 JAG · JAG 1–1 WIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug

JAGIELLONIA

LWLLLL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

WISLA PLOCK

LDWWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	+9	21
5	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
6	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
7	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
8	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	−15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6