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Jagiellonia v Gornik Zabrze

Jagiellonia

1–3Full time

Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:46

Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze JAGIELLONIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jagiellonia win~~45%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.617

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jagiellonia win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jagiellonia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Jagiellonia v Gornik Zabrze
2′Little has changed for our model: Jagiellonia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
3′Little has changed for our model: Jagiellonia 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Rafał Janicki · Gornik Zabrze
45′HALF-TIME Jagiellonia 0–0 Gornik Zabrze
45′SECOND HALF Jagiellonia 0–0 Gornik Zabrze
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ondrej Zmrzly · Gornik Zabrze
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Jagiellonia 0–1 Gornik Zabrze
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Jagiellonia 0–1 Gornik Zabrze · Jarosław Kubicki
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Jagiellonia 0–2 Gornik Zabrze · Jarosław Kubicki
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gornik Zabrze · On: Peter Federico González Carmona · Off: Yvan Ikia Dimi
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Jagiellonia 0–2 Gornik Zabrze · Sondre Liseth
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jagiellonia · On: Ferslev Anders Klynge · Off: Ousmane Sow Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jagiellonia · On: Bartlomiej Wdowik · Off: Cezary Polak
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik Zabrze · Sondre Liseth
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Jagiellonia · On: Jeremy Agbonifo · Off: Sergio Lozano Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik Zabrze · Jesús Imaz
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jeremy Agbonifo · Jagiellonia
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gornik Zabrze · On: Erik Prekop · Off: Sondre Liseth
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gornik Zabrze · On: Zeidane Inoussa · Off: Maksym Khlan
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Jagiellonia · On: Aleksandar·Cirkovic · Off: Kajetan·Szmyt
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Jagiellonia 2–2 Gornik Zabrze · Jesús Imaz
73′⚽ GOAL · 74' Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik Zabrze · Jesús Imaz
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Jagiellonia 2–2 Gornik Zabrze · Jesús Imaz
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Jarosław Kubicki · Gornik Zabrze
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Jagiellonia · On: Kamil Jóźwiak · Off: Rodrigo Conceição
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Malthe Hojholt · Gornik Zabrze
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Yuki Kobayashi · Jagiellonia
95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Gornik Zabrze · On: Kacper Urbanski · Off: Paulo Bernardo
103′⚽ GOAL · 103' Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze · Jesús Imaz
103′⚽ GOAL · 104' Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze · Kacper Urbanski
FTFULL TIME Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze
FTJagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze · Jagiellonia win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jagiellonia win45%

Draw27%

Gornik Zabrze win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:15

Venue · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku

Referee · Wojciech Myc

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-2-3-1

50 S. Abramowicz

27 R. Conceicao

5 B. Vital

4 Y. Kobayashi

2 C. Polak

14 H. Finndell

21 S. Lozano

30 O. Sow

11 J. Imaz

7 K. Szmyt

99 N. Prelec

Coach · Adrian Siemieniec

Substitutes

1 · M. Perchel

44 · A. Konstantopoulos

3 · D. Stojinovic

20 · B. Wdowik

23 · G. Montoia

19 · A. Klynge

85 · E. Kozlowski

6 · T. Romanczuk

32 · A. Cirkovic

9 · D. Rallis

72 · K. Jozwiak

10 · J. Agbonifo

Gornik Zabrze

4-1-4-1

1 P. Schulze

21 O. Zmrzly

26 R. Janicki

20 Josema

64 E. Janza

6 M. Hojholt

7 Y. Ikia Dimi

8 P. Bernardo

14 J. Kubicki

33 M. Khlan

23 S. Liseth

Coach · Michal Gasparik

Substitutes

99 · T. Loska

29 · W. Kania

4 · P. Bochniewicz

2 · P. Warczak

82 · K. Urbanski

11 · E. Prekop

27 · Z. Inoussa

34 · B. Durdov

19 · Peter Federico

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-2-3-1

50 S. Abramowicz

27 R. Conceicao

5 B. Vital

4 Y. Kobayashi

2 C. Polak

14 H. Finndell

21 S. Lozano

30 O. Sow

11 J. Imaz

7 K. Szmyt

99 N. Prelec

Coach · Adrian Siemieniec

Substitutes

1 · M. Perchel

44 · A. Konstantopoulos

3 · D. Stojinovic

20 · B. Wdowik

23 · G. Montoia

19 · A. Klynge

85 · E. Kozlowski

6 · T. Romanczuk

32 · A. Cirkovic

9 · D. Rallis

72 · K. Jozwiak

10 · J. Agbonifo

Gornik Zabrze

4-1-4-1

1 P. Schulze

21 O. Zmrzly

26 R. Janicki

20 Josema

64 E. Janza

6 M. Hojholt

7 Y. Ikia Dimi

8 P. Bernardo

14 J. Kubicki

33 M. Khlan

23 S. Liseth

Coach · Michal Gasparik

Substitutes

99 · T. Loska

29 · W. Kania

4 · P. Bochniewicz

2 · P. Warczak

82 · K. Urbanski

11 · E. Prekop

27 · Z. Inoussa

34 · B. Durdov

19 · Peter Federico

Our number · jagiellonia winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

45% The market36%

Us45%

~~Market~~36%

We make Jagiellonia a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jagiellonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia win	45%	36%	+8
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Gornik Zabrze win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	0
Jagiellonia or draw	71%	64%	+7
Jagiellonia clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gornik Zabrze clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.0 6.4 4.6 1 8.4 12.5 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.6 2.3 3 4.0 4.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia down, Gornik Zabrze across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,610 Ekstraklasa matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jagiellonia at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gornik Zabrze away: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Jagiellonia, 1.24 for Gornik Zabrze. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAG 1–2 GOR · GOR 2–1 JAG · JAG 1–1 GOR · GOR 0–2 JAG

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

JAGIELLONIA

LWLWLL0–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

GORNIK ZABRZE

LWWWWD2–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	+8	22
2	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	+10	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
8	Zaglebie Lubin	9	+1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
10	Jagiellonia	8	−1	12
11	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
12	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
13	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
14	Cracovia Krakow	9	−5	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Slask Wroclaw	9	−4	6
17	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3