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Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice

Gornik Zabrze
1–1Full time
Piast Gliwice

Ekstraklasa · SUN 18 OCT · Arena Zabrze

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08
Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice GORNIK ZABRZE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Gornik Zabrze win48%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.805
The market’s Brier score0.985

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gornik Zabrze win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gornik Zabrze 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice
  4. 5′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast Gliwice
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
  7. 6′5′: Rafał Janicki on the scoresheet for Gornik Zabrze, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–8
  8. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
  9. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
  10. 8′Piast Gliwice level it on 7′ through Hugo Vallejo. 1–1. 1–1 · 47–29–24
  11. 28′8 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 43–34–23
  12. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  13. 44′12 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 38–41–22
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
  15. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Gornik Zabrze win 37%)
  16. 46′HALF-TIME Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
  17. 48′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–43–21
  18. 50′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–16–4
  19. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast Gliwice
  20. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
  21. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Gornik Zabrze win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 16%)
  22. 51′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  23. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
  24. 51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Gornik Zabrze
  25. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
  26. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Gornik Zabrze win 35%)
  27. 53′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
  28. 59′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 31–51–18
  29. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jakub Lewicki · Piast Gliwice
  30. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gornik Zabrze · On: Erik Prekop · Off: Sondre Liseth
  31. 62′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
  32. 64′16 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 28–55–17
  33. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  34. 69′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
  35. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Piast Gliwice · On: Oskar·Lesniak · Off: Jakub Labojko
  36. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Piast Gliwice · On: Szczepan·Mucha · Off: Andreas Katsantonis
  37. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gornik Zabrze · On: Yvan Ikia Dimi · Off: Peter Federico González Carmona
  38. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gornik Zabrze · On: Zeidane Inoussa · Off: Maksym Khlan
  39. 75′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
  40. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  41. 79′20 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 15–76–9
  42. 80′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
  43. 84′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  44. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  45. 86′24 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 8–88–5
  46. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gornik Zabrze · On: Jarosław Kubicki · Off: Paulo Bernardo
  47. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Piast Gliwice · On: Elton Fikaj · Off: Jakub Lewicki
  48. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Piast Gliwice · On: Oliwier Maziarz · Off: Samuel Ntamack Ndimba
  49. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Elton Fikaj · Piast Gliwice
  50. 91′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  51. 93′1–1 at the end. Our 48% on Gornik Zabrze misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  52. FTFULL TIME Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
  53. FTGornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice · Gornik Zabrze win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gornik Zabrze are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gornik Zabrze 48%, draw 28%, Piast Gliwice 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Gornik Zabrze v Piast GliwiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gornik Zabrze win48%
Draw28%
Piast Gliwice win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueArena Zabrze

RefereePatryk Gryckiewicz

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze

4-1-4-1

Piast Gliwice

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gornik Zabrze

Piast Gliwice

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 11 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gornik Zabrze10+1025
7Piast Gliwice10+216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gornik Zabrze

4-1-4-1

1 P. Schulze

21 O. Zmrzlý

26 R. Janicki

20 Josema Sánchez

64 E. Janža

6 M. Højholt

19 Peter

8 Paulo Bernardo

82 K. Urbański

33 M. Khlan

23 S. Liseth

Coach · M. Gašparík

Substitutes

4 · P. Bochniewicz

66 · M. Dietz

34 · B. Durdov

7 · Y. Ikia Dimi

27 · Z. Inoussa

29 · W. Kania

14 · J. Kubicki

99 · T. Loska

11 · E. Prekop

2 · P. Warczak

Piast Gliwice

4-4-2

75 D. Gril

99 E. Twumasi

5 Juande Rivas

4 J. Czerwiński

36 J. Lewicki

11 Leandro Sanca

27 J. Łabojko

17 Q. Boisgard

80 Hugo Vallejo

10 A. Katsantonis

19 S. Ntamack Ndimba

Coach · D. Myśliwiec

Substitutes

31 · O. Leśniak

90 · Ivan Lima

98 · J. Lokilo

18 · O. Maziarz

12 · Marcel Mendes-Dudziński

77 · S. Mucha

15 · L. Pitan

22 · F. Sierralta

28 · F. Borowski

47 · J. Grelich

3 · E. Fikaj

91 · Maciej Kucharski

Our number · gornik zabrze winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market60%
Us48%
Market60%

We make Gornik Zabrze a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice1.50 – 0.98
Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 AugW5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 25 v 161 v 7
The market · Gornik Zabrze win60% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 10:42
Our probability · Gornik Zabrze win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gornik Zabrze win48%60%−12
Draw28%23%+5
Piast Gliwice win24%17%+7
Over 2.5 goals45%55%−10
Both teams to score49%53%−4
Over 1.5 goals72%77%−5
Over 3.5 goals24%34%−10
Gornik Zabrze or draw76%83%−7
Gornik Zabrze clean sheet38%––
Piast Gliwice clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 9.5 7.2 4.1 1 11.5 13.3 6.0 2 9.4 9.1 4.5 3 4.7 4.6 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gornik Zabrze down, Piast Gliwice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsGOR 2–1 PIA · PIA 0–1 GOR · PIA 2–0 GOR · GOR 1–0 PIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 Aug

GORNIK ZABRZE

WWWWDW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

PIAST GLIWICE

DWWWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gornik Zabrze10+1025
2Legia Warszawa11+1323
3Lech Poznan9+1322
4Pogon Szczecin10+921
5GKS Katowice11+618
6Wisla Krakow11+318
7Piast Gliwice10+216
8Korona Kielce10015
9Zaglebie Lubin10−115
10Jagiellonia9−312
11Cracovia Krakow11−312
12Motor Lublin11−412
13Wisla Plock9−611
14Widzew Łódź11−110
15Wieczysta Kraków11−58
16Radomiak Radom10−148
17Slask Wroclaw11−86
18Raków Częstochowa11−116

The competition's standings before kick-off.