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Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice
Gornik Zabrze
Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa · SUN 18 OCT · Arena Zabrze
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gornik Zabrze win at 48%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Gornik Zabrze 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice
- 5′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast Gliwice
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
- 6′5′: Rafał Janicki on the scoresheet for Gornik Zabrze, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–8
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
- 8′Piast Gliwice level it on 7′ through Hugo Vallejo. 1–1. 1–1 · 47–29–24
- 28′8 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 43–34–23
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 44′12 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 38–41–22
- 45′SECOND HALF Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Gornik Zabrze win 37%)
- 46′HALF-TIME Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
- 48′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–43–21
- 50′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–16–4
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast Gliwice
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
- 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Gornik Zabrze win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 16%)
- 51′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
- 51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Gornik Zabrze
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 35% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Gornik Zabrze win 35%)
- 53′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
- 59′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 31–51–18
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jakub Lewicki · Piast Gliwice
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gornik Zabrze · On: Erik Prekop · Off: Sondre Liseth
- 62′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
- 64′16 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 28–55–17
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 69′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Piast Gliwice · On: Oskar·Lesniak · Off: Jakub Labojko
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Piast Gliwice · On: Szczepan·Mucha · Off: Andreas Katsantonis
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gornik Zabrze · On: Yvan Ikia Dimi · Off: Peter Federico González Carmona
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gornik Zabrze · On: Zeidane Inoussa · Off: Maksym Khlan
- 75′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 79′20 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 15–76–9
- 80′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
- 84′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Gornik Zabrze win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 86′24 shots for Gornik Zabrze, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 8–88–5
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gornik Zabrze · On: Jarosław Kubicki · Off: Paulo Bernardo
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Piast Gliwice · On: Elton Fikaj · Off: Jakub Lewicki
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Piast Gliwice · On: Oliwier Maziarz · Off: Samuel Ntamack Ndimba
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Elton Fikaj · Piast Gliwice
- 91′We said Gornik Zabrze at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 93′1–1 at the end. Our 48% on Gornik Zabrze misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice
- FTGornik Zabrze 1–1 Piast Gliwice · Gornik Zabrze win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Gornik Zabrze are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gornik Zabrze 48%, draw 28%, Piast Gliwice 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gornik Zabrze win48%
Piast Gliwice win24%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:15
RoundMatchday 11
VenueArena Zabrze
RefereePatryk Gryckiewicz
Match timeline
All events
Gornik ZabrzeMIN
Piast GliwiceEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Gornik Zabrze
4-1-4-1
Piast Gliwice
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gornik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice
Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa
Last match: 11 Oct · Ekstraklasa
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Gornik Zabrze
4-1-4-1
1 P. Schulze
21 O. Zmrzlý
26 R. Janicki
20 Josema Sánchez
64 E. Janža
6 M. Højholt
19 Peter
8 Paulo Bernardo
82 K. Urbański
33 M. Khlan
23 S. Liseth
Coach · M. Gašparík
Substitutes
4 · P. Bochniewicz
66 · M. Dietz
34 · B. Durdov
7 · Y. Ikia Dimi
27 · Z. Inoussa
29 · W. Kania
14 · J. Kubicki
99 · T. Loska
11 · E. Prekop
2 · P. Warczak
Piast Gliwice
4-4-2
75 D. Gril
99 E. Twumasi
5 Juande Rivas
4 J. Czerwiński
36 J. Lewicki
11 Leandro Sanca
27 J. Łabojko
17 Q. Boisgard
80 Hugo Vallejo
10 A. Katsantonis
19 S. Ntamack Ndimba
Coach · D. Myśliwiec
Substitutes
31 · O. Leśniak
90 · Ivan Lima
98 · J. Lokilo
18 · O. Maziarz
12 · Marcel Mendes-Dudziński
77 · S. Mucha
15 · L. Pitan
22 · F. Sierralta
28 · F. Borowski
47 · J. Grelich
3 · E. Fikaj
91 · Maciej Kucharski
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Gornik Zabrze
4-1-4-1
1 P. Schulze
21 O. Zmrzlý
26 R. Janicki
20 Josema Sánchez
64 E. Janža
6 M. Højholt
19 Peter
8 Paulo Bernardo
82 K. Urbański
33 M. Khlan
23 S. Liseth
Coach · M. Gašparík
Substitutes
4 · P. Bochniewicz
66 · M. Dietz
34 · B. Durdov
7 · Y. Ikia Dimi
27 · Z. Inoussa
29 · W. Kania
14 · J. Kubicki
99 · T. Loska
11 · E. Prekop
2 · P. Warczak
Piast Gliwice
4-4-2
75 D. Gril
99 E. Twumasi
5 Juande Rivas
4 J. Czerwiński
36 J. Lewicki
11 Leandro Sanca
27 J. Łabojko
17 Q. Boisgard
80 Hugo Vallejo
10 A. Katsantonis
19 S. Ntamack Ndimba
Coach · D. Myśliwiec
Substitutes
31 · O. Leśniak
90 · Ivan Lima
98 · J. Lokilo
18 · O. Maziarz
12 · Marcel Mendes-Dudziński
77 · S. Mucha
15 · L. Pitan
22 · F. Sierralta
28 · F. Borowski
47 · J. Grelich
3 · E. Fikaj
91 · Maciej Kucharski
We make Gornik Zabrze a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze win | 48% | 60% | −12 |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | +5 |
| Piast Gliwice win | 24% | 17% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 34% | −10 |
| Gornik Zabrze or draw | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Gornik Zabrze clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Piast Gliwice clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 22 Aug
GORNIK ZABRZE
PIAST GLIWICE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 9 | +13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | −1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | −3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 11 | −3 | 12 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 11 | −4 | 12 |
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 9 | −6 | 11 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | −1 | 10 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | −5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 10 | −14 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | −8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | −11 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznan
Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
Wisla Krakow
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Jagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Widzew Łódź
Wieczysta Kraków
Radomiak Radom
Slask Wroclaw
Raków Częstochowa