Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gornik ZabrzeDrawLegia Warszawa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gornik Zabrze 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gornik Zabrze are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gornik Zabrze 42%, draw 28%, Legia Warszawa 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Gornik Zabrze v Legia WarszawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Gornik Zabrze win42%

Draw28%

Legia Warszawa win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gornik Zabrze

Legia Warszawa

8Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 17 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gornik zabrze winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gornik Zabrze a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa~~1.41 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 27 v 23~~1 v 4

~~The market · Gornik Zabrze win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gornik Zabrze win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gornik Zabrze win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Legia Warszawa win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Gornik Zabrze or draw	70%	68%	+2
Gornik Zabrze clean sheet	32%	–	–
Legia Warszawa clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.8 7.9 5.2 2.0 1 9.9 13.4 7.2 2.8 2 7.6 8.7 5.0 3 3.6 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gornik Zabrze down, Legia Warszawa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Legia Warszawa away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Gornik Zabrze, 1.15 for Legia Warszawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEG 1–1 GOR · GOR 3–1 LEG · GOR 1–2 LEG · LEG 1–1 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 28 Aug

GORNIK ZABRZE

WWDWDD2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

LEGIA WARSZAWA

DWDWWD1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6