GKS Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:08

GKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków GKS KATOWICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GKS Katowice win~~53%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.329

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.440

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GKS Katowice win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: GKS Katowice 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF GKS Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków
9′Little has changed for our model: GKS Katowice 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
14′We said GKS Katowice at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' GKS Katowice 1–0 Wieczysta Kraków
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 52% now
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' GKS Katowice 1–0 Wieczysta Kraków · Ilia Shkurin
15′GKS Katowice ahead on 15′ through Ilia Shkurin. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
16′GKS Katowice ahead on 15′ through Ilia Shkurin. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
17′We said GKS Katowice at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' GKS Katowice win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME GKS Katowice 1–0 Wieczysta Kraków
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Efthymios Koulouris · Off: José Antonio de la Rosa Garrido
45′SECOND HALF GKS Katowice 1–0 Wieczysta Kraków
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' GKS Katowice · On: Bartosz Wolski · Off: Mateusz·Kowalczyk
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' GKS Katowice 1–1 Wieczysta Kraków · Ilia Shkurin
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Matúš Vojtko · Off: Kamil Pestka
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Bartosz Bialek · Off: Tobias Christensen
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' GKS Katowice 1–1 Wieczysta Kraków · Duje Dujmovic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' GKS Katowice · On: Borja Galan · Off: Mateusz Wdowiak
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' GKS Katowice · On: Szymon bartlewicz · Off: Marcel Wedrychowski
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Ben Lederman · Off: Lisandro Semedo
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' GKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków · Duje Dujmovic
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' GKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków · Bartosz Nowak
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' GKS Katowice · On: Arkadiusz Jedrych · Off: Alan Czerwiński
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wieczysta Kraków · On: Nikola·Knezevic · Off: Antonio Milic
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' GKS Katowice · On: Sebastian Milewski · Off: Kacper Lukasiak
FTFULL TIME GKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków
FTGKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków · GKS Katowice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

GKS Katowice win53%

Draw24%

Wieczysta Kraków win23%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:30

VenueStadion GKS Katowice

RefereeMarcin Kochanek

Line-ups

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

Wieczysta Kraków

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

GKS Katowice

Wieczysta Kraków

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
14	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

87 G. Kobylak

30 A. Czerwiński

6 L. Klemenz

55 Pau Resta

23 M. Wasielewski

19 K. Łukasiak

77 M. Kowalczyk

7 M. Wdowiak

10 M. Wędrychowski

17 I. Shkurin

27 B. Nowak

Coach · R. Górak

Substitutes

99 · A. Zreľák

31 · S. Bartlewicz

8 · Borja Galán

4 · A. Jędrych

97 · E. Jirka

1 · M. Kikolski

21 · Jakub Kokosinski

15 · E. Marković

22 · S. Milewski

14 · M. Olsen

68 · B. Wolski

Wieczysta Kraków

3-4-2-1

77 M. Kochalski

15 A. Đermanović

16 A. Milić

55 D. Dujmović

4 K. Fila

10 T. Christensen

20 M. Maigaard

33 K. Pestka

19 José de la Rosa

12 Lucas Piazón

7 Lisandro Semedo

Coach · Ž. Kopić

Substitutes

17 · K. Dankowski

11 · N. Knežević

9 · E. Koulouris

8 · B. Lederman

88 · C. Lungoyi

1 · A. Mikułko

97 · T. Mras

70 · P. Pušić

27 · M. Vojtko

13 · K. Zagrodzki

21 · B. Białek

Our number · gks katowice winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

53% The market46%

Us53%

~~Market~~46%

We make GKS Katowice a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gks katowice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. The market has gone from 43% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GKS Katowice win	53%	46%	+7
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Wieczysta Kraków win	23%	30%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Both teams to score	61%	67%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
GKS Katowice or draw	77%	70%	+6
GKS Katowice clean sheet	29%	–	–
Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.1 4.3 3.2 1 7.2 10.6 6.1 2.6 2 7.8 9.5 5.9 2.5 3 5.1 6.2 3.9 4 2.5 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GKS Katowice down, Wieczysta Kraków across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Ekstraklasa matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.6% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

GKS Katowice at home: 3.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wieczysta Kraków away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for GKS Katowice, 1.24 for Wieczysta Kraków. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:11. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Ekstraklasa since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

GKS KATOWICE

WWLLWW5–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 4–1

WIECZYSTA KRAKÓW

LLDLDW2–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	Wisla Krakow	10	+3	17
6	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
7	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	10	−1	9
14	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3