GKS Katowice v Pogon Szczecin prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

GKS Katowice 0–1 Pogon Szczecin GKS KATOWICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GKS Katowice win~~40%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.668

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GKS Katowice win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: GKS Katowice was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF GKS Katowice v Pogon Szczecin
45′HALF-TIME GKS Katowice 0–0 Pogon Szczecin
45′SECOND HALF GKS Katowice 0–0 Pogon Szczecin
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was GKS Katowice win 33%)
47′We said GKS Katowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' GKS Katowice 0–1 Pogon Szczecin
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' GKS Katowice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Pogon Szczecin
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' GKS Katowice win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Pogon Szczecin win 28%)
51′We said GKS Katowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' GKS Katowice 0–1 Pogon Szczecin
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' GKS Katowice win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Pogon Szczecin win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 22%)
52′Jordi Sánchez scores for Pogon Szczecin on 51′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Lukas Klemenz · GKS Katowice
67′We said GKS Katowice at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' GKS Katowice · On: Bartosz Wolski · Off: Mateusz·Kowalczyk
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kamil Grosicki · Off: Darko Churlinov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' GKS Katowice · On: Erik Jirka · Off: Marcin Wasielewski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' GKS Katowice · On: Mateusz Wdowiak · Off: Marcel Wedrychowski
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pogon Szczecin · On: Lukas Willen · Off: Maciej Wojciechowski
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pogon Szczecin · On: Kellyn Acosta · Off: Jan Bieganski
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Pogon Szczecin · On: Isaiah·Eichie · Off: Alessandro Riccio
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' GKS Katowice win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' GKS Katowice · On: Adam Zreľák · Off: Alan Czerwiński
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Pogon Szczecin · On: Natan Lawa · Off: Jordi Sánchez
89′GKS Katowice have had 16 attempts to 11 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–94
94′Full time, 0–1. We called GKS Katowice at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME GKS Katowice 0–1 Pogon Szczecin
FTGKS Katowice 0–1 Pogon Szczecin · GKS Katowice win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GKS Katowice are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GKS Katowice 40%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 34%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on GKS Katowice v Pogon SzczecinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

GKS Katowice win40%

Draw26%

Pogon Szczecin win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion GKS Katowice

RefereeSzymon Marciniak

Line-ups

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

Pogon Szczecin

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GKS Katowice

Pogon Szczecin

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 11 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	+7	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

GKS Katowice

3-4-3

87 G. Kobylak

30 A. Czerwiński

6 L. Klemenz

55 Pau Resta

23 M. Wasielewski

77 M. Kowalczyk

19 K. Łukasiak

8 Borja Galán

10 M. Wędrychowski

17 I. Shkurin

27 B. Nowak

Coach · R. Górak

Substitutes

31 · S. Bartlewicz

4 · A. Jędrych

97 · E. Jirka

1 · M. Kikolski

22 · S. Milewski

14 · M. Olsen

7 · M. Wdowiak

68 · B. Wolski

99 · A. Zreľák

26 · D. Rasak

Pogon Szczecin

4-4-2

77 V. Cojocaru

4 A. Riccio

13 D. Keramitsis

41 A. Szalai

23 B. Mendy

21 D. Churlinov

16 P. Dziczek

6 J. Biegański

18 P. Mukairu

22 Jordi Sánchez

35 M. Wojciechowski

Coach · Óscar García

Substitutes

29 · L. Willen

75 · A. Ossowski

17 · J. Nsame

9 · R. Molnár

10 · F. Čuić

47 · N. Lawa

11 · K. Grosicki

98 · M. Dabrowski

31 · Nikolaos Nestoras Botis

30 · J. Czaplinski

20 · Isaiah·Eichie

3 · K. Acosta

Our number · gks katowice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

40% The market47%

Us40%

~~Market~~47%

We make GKS Katowice a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GKS Katowice v Pogon Szczecin~~1.56 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 18~~5 v 4

~~The market · GKS Katowice win~~47% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · GKS Katowice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. The market has gone from 43% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GKS Katowice win	40%	47%	−7
Draw	26%	26%	0
Pogon Szczecin win	34%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
GKS Katowice or draw	66%	73%	−7
GKS Katowice clean sheet	25%	–	–
Pogon Szczecin clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.2 6.3 5.1 2.4 1 7.0 12.2 7.9 3.7 2 6.2 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GKS Katowice down, Pogon Szczecin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,620 Ekstraklasa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GKS Katowice at home: 3.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pogon Szczecin away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for GKS Katowice, 1.41 for Pogon Szczecin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POG 1–1 GKS · GKS 2–0 POG · POG 4–0 GKS · GKS 3–1 POG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 23 Aug

GKS KATOWICE

WLLWWW3–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

POGON SZCZECIN

DDDWWW2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	+7	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
14	Motor Lublin	10	−5	9
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	−7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6