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Cracovia Krakow v Zaglebie Lubin

Cracovia Krakow

3–1Full time

Zaglebie Lubin

Ekstraklasa · SAT 10 OCT · Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie Lubin CRACOVIA KRAKOW WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cracovia Krakow win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.470

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.388

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cracovia Krakow win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cracovia Krakow was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Cracovia Krakow v Zaglebie Lubin
26′We said Cracovia Krakow at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–60
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Cracovia Krakow win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Zaglebie Lubin win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Cracovia Krakow win 16%)
26′⚽ GOAL · 27' Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin
29′Zaglebie Lubin ahead on 27′ through Aleks Lawniczak. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Amir Al-Ammari · Cracovia Krakow
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–61
31′We said Cracovia Krakow at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Cracovia Krakow win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′SECOND HALF Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin
49′We said Cracovia Krakow at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Zlatan Alomerović · Zaglebie Lubin
53′Ajdin Hasić scores for Cracovia Krakow on 54′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–46–22
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin · Aleks Lawniczak
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Cracovia Krakow win: 44% at kick-off, 32% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Zaglebie Lubin win 22%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin · Ajdin Hasić
59′We said Cracovia Krakow at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
67′We said Cracovia Krakow at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–17
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Josip Ćorluka · Off: Mateusz Grzybek
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Cracovia Krakow win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Josip Ćorluka · Zaglebie Lubin
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' David Čolina · Zaglebie Lubin
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' sayfallah ltaief · Cracovia Krakow
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Damian Michalski · Off: David Čolina
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Szymon Lyczko · Off: Filip Szymczak Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Zaglebie Lubin · On: Sebastian Kerk · Off: Jakub·Sypek Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cracovia Krakow · On: Martin Minchev · Off: sayfallah ltaief
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cracovia Krakow · On: Mohamed Berte · Off: Mateusz Klich
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Cracovia Krakow win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
98′⚽ GOAL · 98' Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Zaglebie Lubin · Ajdin Hasić
99′⚽ GOAL · 98' Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Zaglebie Lubin · Ajdin Hasić
99′SUBSTITUTION · 100' Cracovia Krakow · On: Kamil Glik · Off: Ajdin Hasić
103′🟨 YELLOW · 101' Leszek Ojrzynski · Zaglebie Lubin
105′🟨 YELLOW · 101' Leszek Ojrzynski · Zaglebie Lubin
107′⚽ GOAL · 107' Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie Lubin
FTFULL TIME Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie Lubin
FTCracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie Lubin · Cracovia Krakow win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cracovia Krakow win44%

Draw29%

Zaglebie Lubin win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:45

Venue · Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium

Referee · Tomasz Marciniak

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow

4-2-3-1

13 S. Madejski

25 O. Kakabadze

4 G. Henriksson

61 B. Traore

28 V. Burlet

20 K. Knap

6 A. Al Ammari

14 A. Hasic

43 M. Klich

47 S. Ltaief

11 L. Nordas

Coach · Bartosz Grzelak

Substitutes

91 · A. Bobek

77 · J. Chrapusta

39 · M. Perkovic

15 · K. Glik

22 · D. Baumgartner

79 · D. Pila

70 · D. Kameri

5 · B. Selan

29 · W. Dej

17 · M. Minchev

90 · M. Berte

18 · K. Zahiroleslam

Zaglebie Lubin

5-4-1

33 Z. Alomerovic

13 M. Grzybek

5 A. Lawniczak

25 M. Nalepa

3 R. Yakuba

6 D. Colina

44 M. Regula

39 F. Kocaba

8 D. Dabrowski

7 J. Sypek

18 F. Szymczak

Coach · Leszek Ojrzynski

Substitutes

30 · D. Hladun

31 · I. Orlikowski

26 · J. Kolan

11 · A. Wozniak

4 · D. Michalski

16 · J. Corluka

88 · M. Mlinaric

21 · S. Marek

37 · S. Kerk

19 · S. Lyczko

27 · P. Dziekonski

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow

4-2-3-1

13 S. Madejski

25 O. Kakabadze

4 G. Henriksson

61 B. Traore

28 V. Burlet

20 K. Knap

6 A. Al Ammari

14 A. Hasic

43 M. Klich

47 S. Ltaief

11 L. Nordas

Coach · Bartosz Grzelak

Substitutes

91 · A. Bobek

77 · J. Chrapusta

39 · M. Perkovic

15 · K. Glik

22 · D. Baumgartner

79 · D. Pila

70 · D. Kameri

5 · B. Selan

29 · W. Dej

17 · M. Minchev

90 · M. Berte

18 · K. Zahiroleslam

Zaglebie Lubin

5-4-1

33 Z. Alomerovic

13 M. Grzybek

5 A. Lawniczak

25 M. Nalepa

3 R. Yakuba

6 D. Colina

44 M. Regula

39 F. Kocaba

8 D. Dabrowski

7 J. Sypek

18 F. Szymczak

Coach · Leszek Ojrzynski

Substitutes

30 · D. Hladun

31 · I. Orlikowski

26 · J. Kolan

11 · A. Wozniak

4 · D. Michalski

16 · J. Corluka

88 · M. Mlinaric

21 · S. Marek

37 · S. Kerk

19 · S. Lyczko

27 · P. Dziekonski

Our number · cracovia krakow winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Cracovia Krakow a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cracovia Krakow win	44%	49%	−5
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Zaglebie Lubin win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−6
Cracovia Krakow or draw	73%	76%	−3
Cracovia Krakow clean sheet	35%	–	–
Zaglebie Lubin clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.6 7.9 4.8 1 10.9 13.6 6.6 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.7 3 4.0 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cracovia Krakow down, Zaglebie Lubin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,610 Ekstraklasa matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Cracovia Krakow, 1.06 for Zaglebie Lubin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZAG 0–0 CRA · CRA 0–0 ZAG · ZAG 1–2 CRA · CRA 1–1 ZAG

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa

CRACOVIA KRAKOW

WWLLLL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN

DDDWWL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	9	+8	22
2	Legia Warszawa	9	+11	19
3	Lech Poznan	8	+10	19
4	Wisla Krakow	9	+5	17
5	GKS Katowice	9	+6	15
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	+6	15
7	Korona Kielce	9	+2	15
8	Zaglebie Lubin	9	+1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	+1	13
10	Jagiellonia	8	−1	12
11	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
12	Widzew Łódź	9	0	9
13	Wieczysta Kraków	9	−3	8
14	Cracovia Krakow	9	−5	8
15	Radomiak Radom	9	−13	8
16	Slask Wroclaw	9	−4	6
17	Motor Lublin	9	−6	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	−12	3