Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin prediction · Ekstraklasa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cracovia KrakowDrawMotor Lublin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cracovia Krakow 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cracovia Krakow are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cracovia Krakow 49%, draw 25%, Motor Lublin 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Cracovia Krakow v Motor LublinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Cracovia Krakow win49%

Draw25%

Motor Lublin win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cracovia Krakow

Motor Lublin

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 23 Oct · Ekstraklasa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cracovia krakow winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market46%

Us49%

~~Market~~46%

We make Cracovia Krakow a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin~~1.74 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~13 v 11

~~The market · Cracovia Krakow win~~46% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cracovia Krakow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cracovia Krakow win	49%	46%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Motor Lublin win	26%	28%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
Cracovia Krakow or draw	74%	72%	+2
Cracovia Krakow clean sheet	30%	–	–
Motor Lublin clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.3 5.5 3.8 1 8.4 11.9 6.6 2.6 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 4.6 5.5 3.3 4 2.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cracovia Krakow down, Motor Lublin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,633 Ekstraklasa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Motor Lublin away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Cracovia Krakow, 1.20 for Motor Lublin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOT 3–3 CRA · CRA 1–2 MOT · MOT 0–1 CRA · CRA 6–2 MOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 5 Sept

CRACOVIA KRAKOW

LLLWDL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

MOTOR LUBLIN

LLDWWD2–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	12	+10	27
2	Lech Poznan	10	+18	25
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	11	+13	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	−4	18
10	Wisla Plock	10	−5	14
11	Motor Lublin	12	−4	13
12	Jagiellonia	10	−4	12
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	−5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	−1	11
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	12	−16	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	−12	6