Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa prediction · Ekstraklasa

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Legia Warszawa LEGIA WARSZAWA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Legia Warszawa win~~37%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Legia Warszawa win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Legia Warszawa 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
2′KICK-OFF Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa
26′We said Legia Warszawa at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Legia Warszawa
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Legia Warszawa win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
27′Legia Warszawa ahead on 26′ through Michal Sevcik. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
39′We said Legia Warszawa at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Paweł Wszołek · Legia Warszawa
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Vincent Burlet · Cracovia Krakow
44′Lasse Selvåg Nordås scores for Cracovia Krakow on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–40–31
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Legia Warszawa · Lasse Selvåg Nordås
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Legia Warszawa win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Legia Warszawa win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Legia Warszawa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Legia Warszawa · On: Arkadiusz Reca · Off: Paweł Wszołek
47′SECOND HALF Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Legia Warszawa
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Legia Warszawa win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
60′We said Legia Warszawa at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 24–51–25
62′We said Legia Warszawa at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–52–24
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Legia Warszawa · On: Bogdan V'Yunnik · Off: Michal Sevcik
71′We said Legia Warszawa at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Legia Warszawa win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cracovia Krakow · On: Mohamed Berte · Off: Mateusz Klich
78′We said Legia Warszawa at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Legia Warszawa · On: Jan Kuchta · Off: Lukasz Zjawinski
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Legia Warszawa · On: Zoran Arsenić · Off: Robert Deziel
83′We said Legia Warszawa at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Legia Warszawa win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cracovia Krakow · On: Kahveh Zahiroleslam · Off: Martin Minchev
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Legia Warszawa · On: Damian Szymański · Off: Bartosz Kapustka
90′We said Legia Warszawa at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Legia Warszawa
FTCracovia Krakow 1–1 Legia Warszawa · Legia Warszawa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Legia Warszawa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cracovia Krakow 35%, draw 29%, Legia Warszawa 37%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Cracovia Krakow v Legia WarszawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cracovia Krakow win35%

Draw29%

Legia Warszawa win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMarshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium

RefereePiotr Lasyk

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow

4-2-3-1

Legia Warszawa

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cracovia Krakow

Legia Warszawa

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 11 Oct · Ekstraklasa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
12	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow

4-2-3-1

13 S. Madejski

25 O. Kakabadze

4 G. Henriksson

61 B. Traoré

28 V. Burlet

20 K. Knap

6 Amir Al Ammari

14 A. Hasić

43 M. Klich

17 M. Minchev

11 L. Nordås

Coach · B. Grzelak

Substitutes

39 · M. Perković

79 · D. Piła

5 · B. Selan

18 · Kahveh Zahiroleslam

90 · M. Berte

22 · D. Baumgartner

91 · A. Bobek

77 · J. Chrapusta

29 · W. Dej

27 · S. Eyob-Abraha

15 · K. Glik

70 · D. Kameri

Legia Warszawa

3-4-3

89 O. Hindrich

91 K. Piątkowski

8 R. Augustyniak

5 Robert Deziel

22 P. Wszołek

53 W. Urbański

67 B. Kapustka

11 K. Chodyna

23 M. Ševčík

79 Ł. Zjawiński

9 R. Adamski

Coach · M. Papszun

Substitutes

6 · Henrique Arreiol

24 · Z. Arsenić

1 · I. Brkić

14 · A. Čolak

2 · S. Fukuda

7 · J. Kuchta

13 · A. Reca

17 · M. Szczepaniak

4 · D. Szymański

27 · Bogdan V'Yunnik

62 · Franciszek Stępniewski

Our number · legia warszawa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

37% The market38%

Us37%

~~Market~~38%

We make Legia Warszawa a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa~~1.28 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 22~~12 v 3

~~The market · Legia Warszawa win~~38% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Legia Warszawa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cracovia Krakow win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Legia Warszawa win	37%	38%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Cracovia Krakow or draw	63%	62%	+1
Cracovia Krakow clean sheet	27%	–	–
Legia Warszawa clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.6 8.7 6.5 2.9 1 8.4 13.5 8.2 3.6 2 6.1 8.0 5.2 2.3 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cracovia Krakow down, Legia Warszawa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,620 Ekstraklasa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ekstraklasa matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Legia Warszawa away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Cracovia Krakow, 1.32 for Legia Warszawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 18:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEG 1–0 CRA · CRA 2–1 LEG · CRA 3–1 LEG · LEG 3–2 CRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ekstraklasa this season · since 21 Aug

CRACOVIA KRAKOW

WLLLLW3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–1

LEGIA WARSZAWA

DDWDWW1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	+10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	+13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	+13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	+8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	+7	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	+3	18
7	Piast Gliwice	10	+2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	−1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	−3	12
11	Motor Lublin	11	−4	12
12	Cracovia Krakow	10	−3	11
13	Wisla Plock	9	−6	11
14	Widzew Łódź	11	−1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	−5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	−14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	−8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	−11	6