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Model 1.2

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Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Lech Poznan

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
11:30Upcoming
Lech Poznan

Cup · WED 28 OCT · Stadion Miejski

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Siarka TarnobrzegDrawLech Poznan
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Lech Poznan 85%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lech Poznan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 6%, draw 10%, Lech Poznan 85%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Lech PoznanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Siarka Tarnobrzeg win6%
Draw10%
Lech Poznan win85%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 11:30

RoundRound of 32

VenueStadion Miejski

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Lech Poznan

11Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · III Liga - Group 4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lech poznan winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
85% The market–
Us85%

We make Lech Poznan an 85% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–3.4, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Siarka Tarnobrzeg v Lech Poznan0.85 – 3.39

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win6%––
Draw10%––
Lech Poznan win85%––
Over 2.5 goals80%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals93%––
Over 3.5 goals61%––
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw15%––
Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet3%––
Lech Poznan clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 9.4%
0123450 4.7 8.3 9.4 7.9 5.41 4.3 7.0 8.0 6.8 4.62 3.0 3.4 2.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Siarka Tarnobrzeg down, Lech Poznan across0–5 goals a side shown (87.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 1 Sept

SIARKA TARNOBRZEG

W3–2

LECH POZNAN

No matches in our record yet.