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Model 1.2

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Lechia Gdansk v Jagiellonia

Lechia Gdansk
19:30Upcoming
Jagiellonia

Cup · WED 28 OCT · Polsat Plus Arena

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lechia GdanskDrawJagiellonia
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Lechia Gdansk 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lechia Gdansk just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lechia Gdansk 38%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia 38%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Lechia Gdansk v JagielloniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Lechia Gdansk win38%
Draw24%
Jagiellonia win38%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 32

VenuePolsat Plus Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lechia Gdansk

Jagiellonia

4Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · I Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lechia gdansk winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
38% The market–
Us38%

We make Lechia Gdansk a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lechia Gdansk v Jagiellonia1.68 – 1.68

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lechia Gdansk win38%––
Draw24%––
Jagiellonia win38%––
Over 2.5 goals65%––
Both teams to score67%––
Over 1.5 goals85%––
Over 3.5 goals43%––
Lechia Gdansk or draw62%––
Lechia Gdansk clean sheet19%––
Jagiellonia clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 4.4 5.1 4.9 2.8 1 5.1 10.6 8.1 4.6 2 4.9 8.1 6.8 3.8 3 2.8 4.6 3.8 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lechia Gdansk down, Jagiellonia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.78
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsLEC 3–0 JAG · JAG 2–0 LEC · LEC 1–0 JAG · JAG 3–2 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 1 Sept

LECHIA GDANSK

W2–1

JAGIELLONIA

No matches in our record yet.