Stal Rzeszów U19 v Jagiellonia U19 prediction · Central Youth League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Stal Rzeszów U19 1–0 Jagiellonia U19 JAGIELLONIA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jagiellonia U19 win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jagiellonia U19 win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jagiellonia U19 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
1′KICK-OFF Stal Rzeszów U19 v Jagiellonia U19
20′A goal for Stal Rzeszów U19 on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–17
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Stal Rzeszów U19 1–0 Jagiellonia U19
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Jagiellonia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Stal Rzeszów U19 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Jagiellonia U19 win 17%)
21′We said Jagiellonia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 62–21–17
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 63–21–15
34′We said Jagiellonia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
45′HALF-TIME Stal Rzeszów U19 1–0 Jagiellonia U19
46′SECOND HALF Stal Rzeszów U19 1–0 Jagiellonia U19
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Jagiellonia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
53′We said Jagiellonia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
67′Stal Rzeszów U19 score on 66′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
67′We said Jagiellonia U19 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Stal Rzeszów U19 2–0 Jagiellonia U19
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Stal Rzeszów U19
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Jagiellonia U19 win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Stal Rzeszów U19 1–0 Jagiellonia U19
FTStal Rzeszów U19 1–0 Jagiellonia U19 · Jagiellonia U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Jagiellonia U19 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stal Rzeszów U19 38%, draw 22%, Jagiellonia U19 40%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Stal Rzeszów U19 v Jagiellonia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stal Rzeszów U19 win38%

Draw22%

Jagiellonia U19 win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stal Rzeszów U19

Jagiellonia U19

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Central Youth League

Last match: 14 Oct · Central Youth League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Jagiellonia U19	10	+3	17
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	10	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Jagiellonia U19 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stal Rzeszów U19 v Jagiellonia U19~~1.67 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~12 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jagiellonia U19 win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stal Rzeszów U19 win	38%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Stal Rzeszów U19 or draw	60%	–	–
Stal Rzeszów U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 6.1 5.0 2.9 1 5.9 9.3 8.2 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 7.9 6.8 3.9 3 2.6 4.4 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stal Rzeszów U19 down, Jagiellonia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Central Youth League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stal Rzeszów U19 at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jagiellonia U19 away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Stal Rzeszów U19, 1.73 for Jagiellonia U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–0 JAG · JAG 1–2 STA · STA 1–1 JAG · JAG 4–4 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 5 Sept

STAL RZESZÓW U19

LWLLLW2–4 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 3–2

JAGIELLONIA U19

WWLWLW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 5–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	10	+10	21
2	Miedź Legnica U19	10	+10	21
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	10	+5	18
4	Wisła Kraków U19	10	+6	17
5	Jagiellonia U19	10	+3	17
6	Zagłębie Lubin U19	10	−2	15
7	Górnik Zabrze U19	10	+6	14
8	Polonia Warszawa U19	10	+4	14
9	Arkonia U19	10	−2	13
10	Raków Częstochowa U19	10	+3	13
11	Talent Warszawa U19	10	−3	12
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	10	−6	11
13	Lech Poznań U19	10	−6	10
14	Korona Kielce U19	10	−9	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	10	−9	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	10	−10	6