Raków Częstochowa U19 v Zagłębie Lubin U19 prediction · Central Youth League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

Raków Częstochowa U19 1–5 Zagłębie Lubin U19 RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Raków Częstochowa U19 win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.677

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Raków Częstochowa U19 win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Raków Częstochowa U19 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–34
1′KICK-OFF Raków Częstochowa U19 v Zagłębie Lubin U19
9′Zagłębie Lubin U19 find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–21–57
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Raków Częstochowa U19 0–1 Zagłębie Lubin U19
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Raków Częstochowa U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Zagłębie Lubin U19 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Raków Częstochowa U19 win 43%)
10′We said Raków Częstochowa U19 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–21–58
13′A goal for Zagłębie Lubin U19 on 13′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–12–80
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Raków Częstochowa U19 0–2 Zagłębie Lubin U19
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Raków Częstochowa U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
14′We said Raków Częstochowa U19 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–12–80
31′🟥 RED CARD · 31' Raków Częstochowa U19
32′Raków Częstochowa U19 are down to ten from 31′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 5–11–84
37′We said Raków Częstochowa U19 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Raków Częstochowa U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME Raków Częstochowa U19 0–3 Zagłębie Lubin U19
46′SECOND HALF Raków Częstochowa U19 0–3 Zagłębie Lubin U19
47′Zagłębie Lubin U19 score on 45′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Raków Częstochowa U19 0–3 Zagłębie Lubin U19
58′Zagłębie Lubin U19 find the net on 57′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Raków Częstochowa U19 0–4 Zagłębie Lubin U19
82′A goal for Raków Częstochowa U19 on 82′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Raków Częstochowa U19 1–4 Zagłębie Lubin U19
83′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
89′Zagłębie Lubin U19 score on 88′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Raków Częstochowa U19 1–5 Zagłębie Lubin U19
FTFULL TIME Raków Częstochowa U19 1–5 Zagłębie Lubin U19
FTRaków Częstochowa U19 1–5 Zagłębie Lubin U19 · Raków Częstochowa U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raków Częstochowa U19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Raków Częstochowa U19 44%, draw 22%, Zagłębie Lubin U19 34%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Raków Częstochowa U19 v Zagłębie Lubin U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Raków Częstochowa U19 win44%

Draw22%

Zagłębie Lubin U19 win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Raków Częstochowa U19

Zagłębie Lubin U19

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Central Youth League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Raków Częstochowa U19	11	+4	16
9	Zagłębie Lubin U19	11	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raków częstochowa u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Raków Częstochowa U19 a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Raków Częstochowa U19 v Zagłębie Lubin U19~~1.72 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 15~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Raków Częstochowa U19 win

Published at 42%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raków Częstochowa U19 win	44%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin U19 win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw	66%	–	–
Raków Częstochowa U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Zagłębie Lubin U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 6.5 4.5 2.3 1 7.4 9.8 7.5 3.8 2 6.0 8.6 6.4 3.2 3 3.5 5.0 3.7 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raków Częstochowa U19 down, Zagłębie Lubin U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 Central Youth League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zagłębie Lubin U19 away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Raków Częstochowa U19, 1.49 for Zagłębie Lubin U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RAK 0–1 ZAG · ZAG 3–1 RAK · RAK 2–0 ZAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA U19

WLLWLW1–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN U19

WLDDDL3–0 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	11	+11	24
2	Miedź Legnica U19	11	+10	22
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	11	+6	21
4	Wisła Kraków U19	11	+5	17
5	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
6	Arkonia U19	11	−1	16
7	Raków Częstochowa U19	11	+4	16
8	Talent Warszawa U19	11	−2	15
9	Zagłębie Lubin U19	11	−3	15
10	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	+6	15
11	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	11	−5	14
13	Lech Poznań U19	11	−3	13
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	−10	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	11	−12	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	−11	6