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Raków Częstochowa U19 v Arkonia U19

Raków Częstochowa U19

1–2Full time

Arkonia U19

Central Youth League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Raków Częstochowa U19 1–2 Arkonia U19 RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Raków Częstochowa U19 win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Raków Częstochowa U19 win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Raków Częstochowa U19 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–27
1′KICK-OFF Raków Częstochowa U19 v Arkonia U19
14′🟥 RED CARD · 14' Raków Częstochowa U19
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Raków Częstochowa U19 0–1 Arkonia U19
22′A goal for Arkonia U19 on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–55
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Raków Częstochowa U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Arkonia U19 win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Raków Częstochowa U19 win 20%)
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Raków Częstochowa U19 1–1 Arkonia U19
32′29′ and it is 1–1: Raków Częstochowa U19 have scored. 1–1 · 42–32–26
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Raków Częstochowa U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 42% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Raków Częstochowa U19 win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Arkonia U19 win 26%)
42′Raków Częstochowa U19 are down to ten from 14′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 39–36–25
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Raków Częstochowa U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Raków Częstochowa U19 1–1 Arkonia U19
46′SECOND HALF Raków Częstochowa U19 1–1 Arkonia U19
52′We said Raków Częstochowa U19 at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–42–23
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Raków Częstochowa U19 win 36%)
63′We said Raków Częstochowa U19 at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–50–20
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Raków Częstochowa U19 1–2 Arkonia U19
FTFULL TIME Raków Częstochowa U19 1–2 Arkonia U19
FTRaków Częstochowa U19 1–2 Arkonia U19 · Raków Częstochowa U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Raków Częstochowa U19 win49%

Draw23%

Arkonia U19 win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raków częstochowa u19 winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Raków Częstochowa U19 a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raków Częstochowa U19 win	49%	47%	+1
Draw	23%	24%	0
Arkonia U19 win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw	72%	71%	+1
Raków Częstochowa U19 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Arkonia U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 7.4 4.1 1 10.1 10.9 6.6 2.7 2 8.0 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.4 5.1 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raków Częstochowa U19 down, Arkonia U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 Central Youth League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Arkonia U19 away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Raków Częstochowa U19, 1.19 for Arkonia U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Central Youth League

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA U19

LWWLLW0–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0

ARKONIA U19

LWLDLD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	9	+10	20
2	Miedź Legnica U19	9	+8	18
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	9	+7	18
4	Górnik Zabrze U19	10	+6	14
5	Wisła Kraków U19	9	+5	14
6	Jagiellonia U19	9	+1	14
7	Raków Częstochowa U19	9	+4	13
8	Zagłębie Lubin U19	8	−2	13
9	Talent Warszawa U19	9	−1	12
10	Polonia Warszawa U19	9	+2	11
11	Arkonia U19	9	−3	10
12	Lech Poznań U19	8	−4	9
13	Korona Kielce U19	9	−9	9
14	Stal Rzeszów U19	9	−7	8
15	Escola Varsovia U19	8	−8	7
16	Arka Gdynia U19	9	−9	6