Polonia Warszawa U19 v Jagiellonia U19 prediction · Central Youth League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Polonia Warszawa U19DrawJagiellonia U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Polonia Warszawa U19 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polonia Warszawa U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polonia Warszawa U19 53%, draw 20%, Jagiellonia U19 27%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Polonia Warszawa U19 v Jagiellonia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Polonia Warszawa U19 win53%

Draw20%

Jagiellonia U19 win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polonia Warszawa U19

Jagiellonia U19

12Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · Central Youth League

Last match: 17 Oct · Central Youth League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
12	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia warszawa u19 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Polonia Warszawa U19 a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Polonia Warszawa U19 v Jagiellonia U19~~2.09 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~12 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polonia Warszawa U19 win	53%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Polonia Warszawa U19 or draw	73%	–	–
Polonia Warszawa U19 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.8 4.6 3.1 1 6.6 8.5 6.2 3.0 2 6.5 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 4.5 6.3 4.5 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Polonia Warszawa U19 down, Jagiellonia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,292 Central Youth League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Polonia Warszawa U19 at home: 2.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jagiellonia U19 away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Polonia Warszawa U19, 1.43 for Jagiellonia U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~POL 2–1 JAG · JAG 4–0 POL · JAG 0–2 POL · POL 3–1 JAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept

POLONIA WARSZAWA U19

LWWDWL0–1 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–3

JAGIELLONIA U19

WLWLWL1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 5–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Miedź Legnica U19	12	+12	25
2	Legia Warszawa U19	11	+11	24
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	12	+5	21
4	Wisła Kraków U19	12	+6	20
5	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	+1	18
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
7	Arkonia U19	11	−1	16
8	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	0	16
9	Lech Poznań U19	12	0	16
10	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	+6	15
11	Talent Warszawa U19	12	−5	15
12	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14
13	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	−7	14
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	−10	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	11	−12	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	−11	6