Home › Football › Central Youth League › Korona Kielce U19 v Lech Poznań U19

Korona Kielce U19 v Lech Poznań U19

Korona Kielce U19

2–2Full time

Lech Poznań U19

Central Youth League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Korona Kielce U19 2–2 Lech Poznań U19 LECH POZNAŃ U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lech Poznań U19 win~~49%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.967

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.866

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lech Poznań U19 win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lech Poznań U19 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 30–21–49
1′KICK-OFF Korona Kielce U19 v Lech Poznań U19
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Korona Kielce U19 0–1 Lech Poznań U19
22′19′ and it is 0–1: Lech Poznań U19 have scored. 0–1 · 12–17–70
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Lech Poznań U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
33′We said Lech Poznań U19 at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 11–18–71
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Korona Kielce U19 1–1 Lech Poznań U19
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Korona Kielce U19 1–1 Lech Poznań U19
42′Korona Kielce U19 find the net on 35′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–31–41
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Lech Poznań U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
45′A goal for Lech Poznań U19 on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–19–72
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Korona Kielce U19 1–2 Lech Poznań U19
45′HALF-TIME Korona Kielce U19 1–2 Lech Poznań U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Lech Poznań U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
46′SECOND HALF Korona Kielce U19 1–2 Lech Poznań U19
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Korona Kielce U19 2–2 Lech Poznań U19
FTFULL TIME Korona Kielce U19 2–2 Lech Poznań U19
FTKorona Kielce U19 2–2 Lech Poznań U19 · Lech Poznań U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Korona Kielce U19 win31%

Draw20%

Lech Poznań U19 win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lech poznań u19 winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Lech Poznań U19 a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lech poznań u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korona Kielce U19 win	31%	33%	−2
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Lech Poznań U19 win	49%	43%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	70%	61%	+10
Both teams to score	69%	63%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	87%	77%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	50%	39%	+10
Korona Kielce U19 or draw	51%	57%	−6
Korona Kielce U19 clean sheet	13%	–	–
Lech Poznań U19 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 5.7 5.5 3.8 1 4.5 8.1 8.5 5.8 3.1 2 3.4 6.6 6.7 4.6 2.4 3 3.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korona Kielce U19 down, Lech Poznań U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 Central Youth League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korona Kielce U19 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lech Poznań U19 away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Korona Kielce U19, 2.07 for Lech Poznań U19. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KOR 3–1 LEC · LEC 2–0 KOR · LEC 3–1 KOR

Form · last six in Central Youth League

KORONA KIELCE U19

LLWWLD0–1 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–6 · 0–0

LECH POZNAŃ U19

LLLLWL1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	9	+10	20
2	Miedź Legnica U19	9	+8	18
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	9	+7	18
4	Górnik Zabrze U19	10	+6	14
5	Wisła Kraków U19	9	+5	14
6	Jagiellonia U19	9	+1	14
7	Raków Częstochowa U19	9	+4	13
8	Zagłębie Lubin U19	8	−2	13
9	Talent Warszawa U19	9	−1	12
10	Polonia Warszawa U19	9	+2	11
11	Arkonia U19	9	−3	10
12	Lech Poznań U19	8	−4	9
13	Korona Kielce U19	9	−9	9
14	Stal Rzeszów U19	9	−7	8
15	Escola Varsovia U19	8	−8	7
16	Arka Gdynia U19	9	−9	6