Korona Kielce U19 v Górnik Zabrze U19 prediction · Central Youth League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Korona Kielce U19DrawGórnik Zabrze U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Górnik Zabrze U19 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Górnik Zabrze U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korona Kielce U19 28%, draw 21%, Górnik Zabrze U19 51%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Korona Kielce U19 v Górnik Zabrze U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Korona Kielce U19 win28%

Draw21%

Górnik Zabrze U19 win51%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korona Kielce U19

Górnik Zabrze U19

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Central Youth League

Last match: 17 Oct · Central Youth League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	+6	15
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · górnik zabrze u19 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Górnik Zabrze U19 a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korona Kielce U19 v Górnik Zabrze U19~~1.42 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~14 v 10

~~The market · Górnik Zabrze U19 win~~45% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Górnik Zabrze U19 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korona Kielce U19 win	28%	31%	−3
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Górnik Zabrze U19 win	51%	45%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	65%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Korona Kielce U19 or draw	49%	55%	−6
Korona Kielce U19 clean sheet	14%	–	–
Górnik Zabrze U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 7.0 6.5 4.3 2.2 1 5.2 8.9 9.0 6.0 3.0 2 3.4 6.5 6.3 4.2 2.1 3 3.1 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korona Kielce U19 down, Górnik Zabrze U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,292 Central Youth League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korona Kielce U19 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Górnik Zabrze U19 away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Korona Kielce U19, 1.99 for Górnik Zabrze U19. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KOR 4–1 GOR · GOR 3–1 KOR · KOR 1–2 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept

KORONA KIELCE U19

WWLDDL1–0 · 3–1 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

GÓRNIK ZABRZE U19

DLWWWD3–3 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Miedź Legnica U19	12	+12	25
2	Legia Warszawa U19	11	+11	24
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	12	+5	21
4	Wisła Kraków U19	12	+6	20
5	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	+1	18
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
7	Arkonia U19	11	−1	16
8	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	0	16
9	Lech Poznań U19	12	0	16
10	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	+6	15
11	Talent Warszawa U19	12	−5	15
12	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14
13	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	−7	14
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	−10	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	11	−12	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	−11	6