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Jagiellonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19

Jagiellonia U19

5–3Full time

Lech Poznań U19

Central Youth League · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Jagiellonia U19 5–3 Lech Poznań U19 LECH POZNAŃ U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lech Poznań U19 win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lech Poznań U19 win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lech Poznań U19 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 38–21–41
1′KICK-OFF Jagiellonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Jagiellonia U19 1–0 Lech Poznań U19
40′A goal for Jagiellonia U19 on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Jagiellonia U19 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Lech Poznań U19 win 14%)
41′We said Lech Poznań U19 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
45′HALF-TIME Jagiellonia U19 1–0 Lech Poznań U19
46′SECOND HALF Jagiellonia U19 1–0 Lech Poznań U19
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Jagiellonia U19 2–0 Lech Poznań U19
52′51′ and it is 2–0: Jagiellonia U19 have scored. 2–0 · 89–8–3
52′We said Lech Poznań U19 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
54′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 2–0 · 90–8–2
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Jagiellonia U19 3–0 Lech Poznań U19
55′Jagiellonia U19 find the net on 54′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
66′A goal for Lech Poznań U19 on 66′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Jagiellonia U19 3–1 Lech Poznań U19
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
74′74′ and it is 3–2: Lech Poznań U19 have scored. 3–2 · 78–18–3
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Jagiellonia U19 3–2 Lech Poznań U19
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 3% now
75′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 79–18–3
78′Jagiellonia U19 find the net on 78′. 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Jagiellonia U19 4–2 Lech Poznań U19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
79′A goal for Lech Poznań U19 on 79′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 83–15–2
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Jagiellonia U19 4–3 Lech Poznań U19
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
80′7 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 84–14–2
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Lech Poznań U19 win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Jagiellonia U19 5–3 Lech Poznań U19
FTFULL TIME Jagiellonia U19 5–3 Lech Poznań U19
FTJagiellonia U19 5–3 Lech Poznań U19 · Lech Poznań U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:39 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia U19 win38%

Draw21%

Lech Poznań U19 win41%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jagiellonia U19

Lech Poznań U19

5Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Jagiellonia U19	9	1	14
13	Lech Poznań U19	9	-4	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lech poznań u19 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:39 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Lech Poznań U19 a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19~~1.85 – 1.93

~~Last six in Central Youth League~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~8 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lech poznań u19 win

Published at 39%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia U19 win	38%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Lech Poznań U19 win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 or draw	59%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Lech Poznań U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.2 4.8 4.3 2.8 1 4.6 7.9 7.7 5.0 2.4 2 4.0 7.4 7.1 4.5 2.2 3 2.5 4.6 4.4 2.8 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia U19 down, Lech Poznań U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,278 Central Youth League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 4.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jagiellonia U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lech Poznań U19 away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Jagiellonia U19, 1.93 for Lech Poznań U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LEC 3–3 JAG · JAG 3–5 LEC · LEC 1–0 JAG · JAG 1–2 LEC

Form · last six in Central Youth League

JAGIELLONIA U19

DWWLWL2–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–4

LECH POZNAŃ U19

LLLWLD1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	10	10	21
2	Miedź Legnica U19	10	10	21
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	10	5	18
4	Wisła Kraków U19	10	6	17
5	Polonia Warszawa U19	10	4	14
6	Górnik Zabrze U19	10	6	14
7	Zagłębie Lubin U19	9	-2	14
8	Jagiellonia U19	9	1	14
9	Arkonia U19	10	-2	13
10	Raków Częstochowa U19	10	3	13
11	Talent Warszawa U19	10	-3	12
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	10	-6	11
13	Lech Poznań U19	9	-4	10
14	Korona Kielce U19	10	-9	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	9	-9	7
16	Arka Gdynia U19	10	-10	6