Jagiellonia U19 v Arkonia U19 prediction · Central Youth League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Jagiellonia U19DrawArkonia U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jagiellonia U19 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jagiellonia U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jagiellonia U19 48%, draw 22%, Arkonia U19 29%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia U19 v Arkonia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia U19 win48%

Draw22%

Arkonia U19 win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jagiellonia U19

Arkonia U19

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Central Youth League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
7	Arkonia U19	11	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jagiellonia u19 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Jagiellonia U19 a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia U19 v Arkonia U19~~1.82 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 16~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia U19 win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Arkonia U19 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 or draw	71%	–	–
Jagiellonia U19 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Arkonia U19 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 6.1 3.9 1 8.0 9.9 6.9 3.2 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.8 3 4.2 5.5 3.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia U19 down, Arkonia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 Central Youth League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jagiellonia U19 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arkonia U19 away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Jagiellonia U19, 1.36 for Arkonia U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARK 0–0 JAG · JAG 2–2 ARK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept

JAGIELLONIA U19

WLWLWL1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 5–3 · 0–1

ARKONIA U19

LDLDWW0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Miedź Legnica U19	12	+12	25
2	Legia Warszawa U19	11	+11	24
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	11	+6	21
4	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	+1	18
5	Wisła Kraków U19	11	+5	17
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
7	Arkonia U19	11	−1	16
8	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	0	16
9	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	+6	15
10	Talent Warszawa U19	11	−2	15
11	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	−7	14
13	Lech Poznań U19	11	−3	13
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	−10	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	11	−12	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	−11	6