Arkonia U19 v Arka Gdynia U19 prediction · Central Youth League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Arkonia U19 1–0 Arka Gdynia U19 ARKONIA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arkonia U19 win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.373

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arkonia U19 win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arkonia U19 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
1′KICK-OFF Arkonia U19 v Arka Gdynia U19
27′Arkonia U19 find the net on 26′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
27′We said Arkonia U19 at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Arkonia U19 1–0 Arka Gdynia U19
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Arkonia U19 win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–9
37′We said Arkonia U19 at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
45′HALF-TIME Arkonia U19 1–0 Arka Gdynia U19
46′SECOND HALF Arkonia U19 1–0 Arka Gdynia U19
63′We said Arkonia U19 at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Arkonia U19 win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
74′We said Arkonia U19 at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We said Arkonia U19 at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Arkonia U19 win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
88′We said Arkonia U19 at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Arkonia U19 1–0 Arka Gdynia U19
FTArkonia U19 1–0 Arka Gdynia U19 · Arkonia U19 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arkonia U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arkonia U19 50%, draw 22%, Arka Gdynia U19 27%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Arkonia U19 v Arka Gdynia U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arkonia U19 win50%

Draw22%

Arka Gdynia U19 win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arkonia U19

Arka Gdynia U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Central Youth League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Arkonia U19	10	−2	13
16	Arka Gdynia U19	10	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arkonia u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Arkonia U19 a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arkonia U19 v Arka Gdynia U19~~1.81 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~9 v 16

~~The market · Arkonia U19 win~~52% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arkonia U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arkonia U19 win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Arka Gdynia U19 win	27%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Arkonia U19 or draw	73%	75%	−2
Arkonia U19 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Arka Gdynia U19 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 6.2 3.8 1 8.7 10.2 6.6 2.8 2 7.5 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 4.5 5.6 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arkonia U19 down, Arka Gdynia U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Central Youth League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Arkonia U19 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Arka Gdynia U19 away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Arkonia U19, 1.27 for Arka Gdynia U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 5 Sept

ARKONIA U19

WLDLDW1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1

ARKA GDYNIA U19

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	10	+10	21
2	Miedź Legnica U19	10	+10	21
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	10	+5	18
4	Wisła Kraków U19	10	+6	17
5	Jagiellonia U19	10	+3	17
6	Zagłębie Lubin U19	10	−2	15
7	Górnik Zabrze U19	10	+6	14
8	Polonia Warszawa U19	10	+4	14
9	Arkonia U19	10	−2	13
10	Raków Częstochowa U19	10	+3	13
11	Talent Warszawa U19	10	−3	12
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	10	−6	11
13	Lech Poznań U19	10	−6	10
14	Korona Kielce U19	10	−9	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	10	−9	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	10	−10	6