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Arka Gdynia U19 v Stal Rzeszów U19

Arka Gdynia U19

2–3Full time

Stal Rzeszów U19

Central Youth League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Arka Gdynia U19 2–3 Stal Rzeszów U19 ARKA GDYNIA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arka Gdynia U19 win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arka Gdynia U19 win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arka Gdynia U19 was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
1′KICK-OFF Arka Gdynia U19 v Stal Rzeszów U19
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Arka Gdynia U19 0–1 Stal Rzeszów U19
22′20′ and it is 0–1: Stal Rzeszów U19 have scored. 0–1 · 18–23–59
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Arka Gdynia U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Stal Rzeszów U19 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Arka Gdynia U19 win 18%)
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Arka Gdynia U19 0–2 Stal Rzeszów U19
31′Stal Rzeszów U19 find the net on 26′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Arka Gdynia U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Arka Gdynia U19 1–2 Stal Rzeszów U19
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Arka Gdynia U19 1–2 Stal Rzeszów U19
42′A goal for Arka Gdynia U19 on 37′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 13–24–63
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Arka Gdynia U19 2–2 Stal Rzeszów U19
45′HALF-TIME Arka Gdynia U19 2–2 Stal Rzeszów U19
46′SECOND HALF Arka Gdynia U19 2–2 Stal Rzeszów U19
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Arka Gdynia U19 2–3 Stal Rzeszów U19
FTFULL TIME Arka Gdynia U19 2–3 Stal Rzeszów U19
FTArka Gdynia U19 2–3 Stal Rzeszów U19 · Arka Gdynia U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arka Gdynia U19 win44%

Draw23%

Stal Rzeszów U19 win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arka gdynia u19 winPublished 10 Oct 09:34

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Arka Gdynia U19 a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arka Gdynia U19 win	44%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Stal Rzeszów U19 win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Arka Gdynia U19 or draw	67%	–	–
Arka Gdynia U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Stal Rzeszów U19 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.5 6.9 4.6 2.2 1 8.1 10.3 7.5 3.6 2 6.4 8.8 6.2 2.9 3 3.6 4.9 3.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arka Gdynia U19 down, Stal Rzeszów U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 Central Youth League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arka Gdynia U19 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stal Rzeszów U19 away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Arka Gdynia U19, 1.41 for Stal Rzeszów U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–1 ARK · ARK 0–2 STA

Form · last six in Central Youth League

ARKA GDYNIA U19

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 2–3 · 1–5

STAL RZESZÓW U19

LLWLLL1–2 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa U19	9	+10	20
2	Miedź Legnica U19	9	+8	18
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	9	+7	18
4	Górnik Zabrze U19	10	+6	14
5	Wisła Kraków U19	9	+5	14
6	Jagiellonia U19	9	+1	14
7	Raków Częstochowa U19	9	+4	13
8	Zagłębie Lubin U19	8	−2	13
9	Talent Warszawa U19	9	−1	12
10	Polonia Warszawa U19	9	+2	11
11	Arkonia U19	9	−3	10
12	Lech Poznań U19	8	−4	9
13	Korona Kielce U19	9	−9	9
14	Stal Rzeszów U19	9	−7	8
15	Escola Varsovia U19	8	−8	7
16	Arka Gdynia U19	9	−9	6