Arka Gdynia U19 v Polonia Warszawa U19 prediction · Central Youth League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arka Gdynia U19DrawPolonia Warszawa U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Polonia Warszawa U19 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polonia Warszawa U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arka Gdynia U19 29%, draw 22%, Polonia Warszawa U19 49%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Arka Gdynia U19 v Polonia Warszawa U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Arka Gdynia U19 win29%

Draw22%

Polonia Warszawa U19 win49%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arka Gdynia U19

Polonia Warszawa U19

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Central Youth League

Last match: 18 Oct · Central Youth League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polonia warszawa u19 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Polonia Warszawa U19 a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arka Gdynia U19 v Polonia Warszawa U19~~1.39 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arka Gdynia U19 win	29%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Polonia Warszawa U19 win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Arka Gdynia U19 or draw	51%	–	–
Arka Gdynia U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Polonia Warszawa U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.7 7.7 6.7 4.2 1 5.8 9.6 9.1 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.8 6.3 3.9 3 3.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arka Gdynia U19 down, Polonia Warszawa U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 Central Youth League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Central Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arka Gdynia U19 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Polonia Warszawa U19 away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Arka Gdynia U19, 1.86 for Polonia Warszawa U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~POL 3–3 ARK · ARK 2–2 POL · ARK 2–4 POL · POL 1–0 ARK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Central Youth League this season · since 12 Sept

ARKA GDYNIA U19

LLLLLL0–1 · 2–5 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 0–1

POLONIA WARSZAWA U19

LWWDWL0–1 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Miedź Legnica U19	12	+12	25
2	Legia Warszawa U19	11	+11	24
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	11	+6	21
4	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	+1	18
5	Wisła Kraków U19	11	+5	17
6	Jagiellonia U19	11	+2	17
7	Arkonia U19	11	−1	16
8	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	0	16
9	Górnik Zabrze U19	11	+6	15
10	Talent Warszawa U19	11	−2	15
11	Polonia Warszawa U19	11	+3	14
12	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	−7	14
13	Lech Poznań U19	11	−3	13
14	Korona Kielce U19	11	−10	10
15	Escola Varsovia U19	11	−12	8
16	Arka Gdynia U19	11	−11	6