Tuloy v Mendiola prediction · PFL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TuloyDrawMendiola

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Tuloy 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tuloy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tuloy 57%, draw 15%, Mendiola 27%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 82%.

The AI’s read on Tuloy v MendiolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tuloy win57%

Draw15%

Mendiola win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundGroup stage

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tuloy

Mendiola

7Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · PFL

Last match: 11 Oct · PFL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tuloy	6	−12	3
9	Mendiola	3	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tuloy winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Tuloy a 57% chance to win. The model expects 3.1–2.2, and 3–2 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tuloy v Mendiola~~3.14 – 2.17

~~Form · PFL this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tuloy win	57%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Mendiola win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	82%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	76%	–	–
Tuloy or draw	73%	–	–
Tuloy clean sheet	13%	–	–
Mendiola clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–2 at 5.4%

0123450 1 2.2 3.4 3.7 2.7 2 2.7 5.2 5.4 3.9 2.2 3 2.7 5.2 5.4 3.9 2.2 4 2.1 4.0 4.2 3.0 5 2.6 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Tuloy down, Mendiola across0–5 goals a side shown (86.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 434 PFL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: PFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 4.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tuloy at home: 1.17 scored, 5.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mendiola away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.14 goals for Tuloy, 2.17 for Mendiola. Most likely score 3–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MEN 1–4 TUL · TUL 1–1 MEN · MEN 0–3 TUL · MEN 4–2 TUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · PFL this season · since 31 Aug

TULOY

LLWLLL2–4 · 0–3 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 4–5 · 0–6

MENDIOLA

DLD1–1 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maharlika	7	+8	14
2	Manila Digger	4	+8	12
3	Kaya	5	+9	10
4	Davao Aguilas	3	+5	7
5	Stallion	5	0	7
6	Azkals	5	−6	4
7	Dynamic Herb Cebu	3	+3	3
8	Tuloy	6	−12	3
9	Mendiola	3	−4	2
10	Philippine Army	3	−11	0