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Model 1.1

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Kaya v Manila Digger

Kaya
0–1Full time
Manila Digger

PFL · SUN 11 OCT · Rizal Memorial Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04
Kaya 0–1 Manila Digger MANILA DIGGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Manila Digger win50%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.374
The market’s Brier score0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manila Digger win at 50%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Kaya v Manila Digger
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Manila Digger 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
  4. 5′Little has changed for our model: Manila Digger 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Manila Digger win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
  6. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Manila Digger win: 50% at kick-off, 44% now
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Kaya 0–0 Manila Digger
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Kaya 0–0 Manila Digger
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Manila Digger win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
  10. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Manila Digger win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
  11. 90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Kaya 0–1 Manila Digger
  12. FTFULL TIME Kaya 0–1 Manila Digger
  13. FTKaya 0–1 Manila Digger · Manila Digger win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kaya win28%
Draw22%
Manila Digger win50%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueRizal Memorial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kaya

Manila Digger

14Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Kaya3+109
3Manila Digger3+79

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manila digger winPublished 11 Oct 13:43
50% The market57%
Us50%
Market57%

We make Manila Digger a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1911 OCT 04:04
Our probability · manila digger win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kaya win28%21%+7
Draw22%22%0
Manila Digger win50%57%−7
Over 2.5 goals53%65%−12
Both teams to score52%62%−10
Over 1.5 goals74%81%−6
Over 3.5 goals32%44%−11
Kaya or draw50%43%+7
Kaya clean sheet20%––
Manila Digger clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.2 11.6 8.4 4.7 2.1 1 7.8 9.3 8.3 4.7 2.1 2 3.7 5.9 5.0 2.9 3 2.6 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kaya down, Manila Digger across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.17
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsKAY 0–3 MAN · MAN 1–0 KAY · KAY 0–2 MAN · KAY 1–1 MAN

Form · last six in PFL

KAYA

WLLWWW3–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 5–0

MANILA DIGGER

DWDWWW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2027/28
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Maharlika6+813
2Kaya3+109
3Manila Digger3+79
4Davao Aguilas2+56
5Stallion3−13
6Tuloy4−53
7Azkals4−63
8Mendiola2−41
9Dynamic Herb Cebu2−30
10Philippine Army3−110

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.