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Model 1.2

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Union Comercio v Minas

Union Comercio
20:15Upcoming
Minas

Segunda División · SAT 31 OCT · Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Union ComercioDrawMinas
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:15
Before kick-off · Match result · Union Comercio 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Comercio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Comercio 55%, draw 26%, Minas 19%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Union Comercio v MinasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Union Comercio win55%
Draw26%
Minas win19%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:15

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 6

VenueEstadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Comercio

Minas

13Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 24 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union comercio winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off
55% The market–
Us55%

We make Union Comercio a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Union Comercio v Minas1.62 – 0.85
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Union Comercio win55%––
Draw26%––
Minas win19%––
Over 2.5 goals44%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals70%––
Over 3.5 goals24%––
Union Comercio or draw81%––
Union Comercio clean sheet43%––
Minas clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%
0123450 9.5 6.9 3.1 1 13.3 11.8 4.8 2 10.9 9.0 3.8 3 6.0 4.9 2.1 4 2.5 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Union Comercio down, Minas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsMIN 4–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

UNION COMERCIO

WLWLWD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 1–1

MINAS

WLWLWL2–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–2