Union Comercio v Ayacucho FC prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 00:00

Union Comercio 5–0 Ayacucho FC UNION COMERCIO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Comercio win~~63%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.205

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.224

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Comercio win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Union Comercio 63% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–22–14
1′KICK-OFF Union Comercio v Ayacucho FC
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Union Comercio 1–0 Ayacucho FC
19′18′ and it is 1–0: Union Comercio have scored. 1–0 · 86–11–3
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Union Comercio win: 63% at kick-off, 86% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Union Comercio 2–0 Ayacucho FC
45′SECOND HALF Union Comercio 2–0 Ayacucho FC
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Union Comercio 2–0 Ayacucho FC
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Union Comercio 3–0 Ayacucho FC · A. Pinedo
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Union Comercio 4–0 Ayacucho FC · A. Pinedo
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Union Comercio 4–0 Ayacucho FC
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Ayacucho FC
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Ayacucho FC
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Union Comercio 5–0 Ayacucho FC · B. Goluz Pena
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Union Comercio 5–0 Ayacucho FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Ayacucho FC
FTFULL TIME Union Comercio 5–0 Ayacucho FC
FTUnion Comercio 5–0 Ayacucho FC · Union Comercio win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 21:19 · locked at kick-off

Union Comercio win63%

Draw23%

Ayacucho FC win14%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia

Line-ups

Union Comercio

Ayacucho FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Union Comercio

Ayacucho FC

6Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
13	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union Comercio

Formation not confirmed

12 J. Amasifuen

3 M. Peralta

5 E. Alvarez

24 Javier Navea

25 E. Paucar

31 A. Pinedo

21 R. Gomez

20 M. Palacios

10 G. Guerrero

99 B. Goluz Pena

7 C. Vargas

Coach · Juan Malpica

Substitutes

11 · M. Carranza

40 · L. Gavino

26 · J. Tandazo

90 · C. Small

19 · G. Delgado

23 · W. Mimbela

17 · D. Vargas

15 · C. Vargas

28 · L. Garcia

Ayacucho FC

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Acosta

2 H. Aquino

22 J. Velasquez

29 S. Lojas

25 C. H. Albornoz

19 A. Tamariz

17 J. Tuesta

20 A. Fanarraga

11 S. Barboza

7 M. Infante

24 M. Diaz

Coach · Sergio Castellanos

Substitutes

30 · O. Cabrera

18 · C. Huyhua

16 · G. Ataupilco

21 · J. Morales

14 · A. Ochante

10 · F. Mezarina

15 · E. Gonzales

33 · R. Salcedo

Our number · union comercio winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 21:19 · locked at kick-off

63% The market62%

Us63%

~~Market~~62%

We make Union Comercio a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union comercio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Comercio win	63%	62%	+2
Draw	23%	23%	−1
Ayacucho FC win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−4
Union Comercio or draw	86%	85%	+1
Union Comercio clean sheet	50%	–	–
Ayacucho FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 8.9 5.4 2.1 1 14.1 10.3 3.5 2 12.9 8.8 3.2 3 8.0 5.5 4 3.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Comercio down, Ayacucho FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 985 Segunda División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Union Comercio at home: 1.33 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ayacucho FC away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Union Comercio, 0.70 for Ayacucho FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Segunda División since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Segunda División

UNION COMERCIO

DDWLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4

AYACUCHO FC

LWLLWL1–3 · 7–1 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	19	+7	31
3	Minas	18	+15	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
5	Sport Huancayo 2	18	+9	28
6	Santos	18	+4	27
7	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+11	26
8	Comerciantes	19	+2	26
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	17	+2	25
10	U. San Martin	17	−1	24
11	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22
12	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22
13	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22
14	Estudiantil CNI	17	+4	18
15	Cesar Vallejo	15	−2	17
16	Academia Cantolao	17	−17	12
17	Deportivo Binacional	18	−43	11
18	San Marcos	2	−7	0