U. San Martin v Carlos A. Mannucci prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

U. San MartinDrawCarlos A. Mannucci

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:45

Before kick-off · Match result · U. San Martin 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

U. San Martin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: U. San Martin 41%, draw 26%, Carlos A. Mannucci 34%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on U. San Martin v Carlos A. MannucciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

U. San Martin win41%

Draw26%

Carlos A. Mannucci win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:45

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 5

VenueVilla Deportiva USMP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

U. San Martin

Carlos A. Mannucci

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+10	30
5	U. San Martin	16	+9	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · u. san martin winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 05:40 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make U. San Martin a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · U. San Martin v Carlos A. Mannucci~~1.51 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 24 v 30~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · U. San Martin win

Published at 39%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
U. San Martin win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Carlos A. Mannucci win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
U. San Martin or draw	66%	–	–
U. San Martin clean sheet	27%	–	–
Carlos A. Mannucci clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 7.4 5.3 2.5 1 8.4 11.8 7.4 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.5 2.5 3 3.4 4.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+U. San Martin down, Carlos A. Mannucci across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 999 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

U. San Martin at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Carlos A. Mannucci away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for U. San Martin, 1.36 for Carlos A. Mannucci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CAR 7–0 USA · USA 2–0 CAR · CAR 2–1 USA · CAR 3–2 USA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 29 Aug

U. SAN MARTIN

LDLWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

CARLOS A. MANNUCCI

WWWDWD2–0 · 4–2 · 7–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	+14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	+5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	+9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	+2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	+1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	−11	14
9	San Marcos	14	−43	0