U. San Martin v Bentín Tacna Heroica prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

U. San Martin 2–0 Bentín Tacna Heroica U. SAN MARTIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said U. San Martin win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said U. San Martin win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: U. San Martin 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
2′Little has changed for our model: U. San Martin 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
44′A goal for U. San Martin on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–9
45′A goal for U. San Martin on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–9
49′We said U. San Martin at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–21–8
51′We said U. San Martin at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
71′We said U. San Martin at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–17–3
87′84′ and it is 2–0: U. San Martin have scored. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' U. San Martin win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' U. San Martin win: 38% at kick-off, 100% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' U. San Martin win: 38% at kick-off, 100% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' U. San Martin win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
90′84′ and it is 2–0: U. San Martin have scored. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' U. San Martin win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' U. San Martin win: 38% at kick-off, 100% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' U. San Martin 3–0 Bentín Tacna Heroica · C. Lopez
FTFULL TIME U. San Martin 2–0 Bentín Tacna Heroica
FTU. San Martin 2–0 Bentín Tacna Heroica · U. San Martin win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

U. San Martin win38%

Draw26%

Bentín Tacna Heroica win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueVilla Deportiva USMP

Line-ups

U. San Martin

Bentín Tacna Heroica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

U. San Martin

Bentín Tacna Heroica

5Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	18	+9	31
13	U. San Martin	16	−3	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

U. San Martin

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Ynamine

17 J. Reyes

4 Otavio Gut

5 A. Ampuero

19 I. Chumpitaz

10 E. Oliva

24 K. Pena

8 V. Sanchez

70 C. Lopez

16 S. Sanchez

18 A. Arteaga

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. L. Mayta Boza

39 · F. Vera

23 · R. Vargas

7 · J. Arroe

13 · C. Vega

29 · D. Ismodes

90 · K. Sanchez

9 · M. Affonso

32 · F. Mendoza

Bentín Tacna Heroica

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Sotillo

15 F. Aragon

2 R. Benavente

17 K. Flores

18 C. Ventura

29 I. A. Garrafa Tapia

16 J. Inga

8 J. Lopez

14 G. Loayza

28 J. Mendoza

26 K. Rodriguez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Montalvo

24 · A. Perez

10 · J. Garcia

3 · D. Alvarado

4 · E. Pena

20 · A. Garcia

27 · J. Linares

7 · K. Palomino

6 · P. Leon

Our number · u. san martin winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market–

Us38%

We make U. San Martin a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · u. san martin win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
U. San Martin win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bentín Tacna Heroica win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
U. San Martin or draw	64%	–	–
U. San Martin clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bentín Tacna Heroica clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.6 8.5 5.9 2.8 1 8.9 12.1 7.6 3.5 2 6.4 8.0 5.1 2.4 3 3.0 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+U. San Martin down, Bentín Tacna Heroica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

U. San Martin at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bentín Tacna Heroica away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for U. San Martin, 1.35 for Bentín Tacna Heroica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BEN 2–0 USA · USA 2–1 BEN

Form · last six in Segunda División

U. SAN MARTIN

WWLDLW3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 2–1

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA

WLWDDD1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	18	+9	31
3	Minas	18	+15	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
5	Sport Huancayo 2	18	+9	28
6	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+11	26
7	Comerciantes	18	+4	26
8	Santos	17	0	24
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	16	0	22
10	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22
11	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22
12	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22
13	U. San Martin	16	−3	21
14	Estudiantil CNI	17	+4	18
15	Cesar Vallejo	15	−2	17
16	Academia Cantolao	17	−17	12
17	Deportivo Binacional	17	−39	11
18	San Marcos	2	−7	0