Santos v Deportivo Binacional prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:30

Santos 4–0 Deportivo Binacional SANTOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santos win~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.042

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Santos win84%

Draw11%

Deportivo Binacional win6%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Municipal de Nasca

Line-ups

Santos

Deportivo Binacional

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Santos

Deportivo Binacional

4Days since last match16

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Santos	17	0	24
17	Deportivo Binacional	17	−39	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

PLAYER RATINGS I Lille 1-0 Le Havre: Dilane Bakwa extends unbeaten home run of Ligue 1 provisional leaders Les DoguesGet French Football News · 1 day ago · Lille, Santos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Santos

Formation not confirmed

22 C. Roman

13 A. Cano

25 P. Toledo

14 G. Quiroz

20 G. Morales

32 S. Torres

5 G. Collante

70 J. Munoz

29 D. Taco

11 A. S. Rojas Castilla

36 S. Paiva

Coach · Guillermo Salas

Substitutes

1 · P. Izaguirre

28 · C. Garcia

8 · Y. Tello

16 · N. Marcos

27 · E. Fuentes

30 · P. Barrera

10 · L. Aguirre

9 · M. Curiel

39 · J. Baylon

Deportivo Binacional

Formation not confirmed

23 C. Limousin

30 A. Mosquera

32 C. Perez

5 J. Santa Maria

16 J. P. Jimenez

7 C. Farfan

6 O. Vasquez

17 B. Cubas

10 A. Gastulo

50 R. Miranda

13 J. Diaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Serna

18 · N. Quintana

26 · A. Zuniga

35 · L. Pasache

29 · A. Huaraccallo

25 · S. Angulo

11 · L. Huaman

33 · A. Ramirez

19 · S. Lopez

Our number · santos winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

84% The market–

Us84%

We make Santos a 84% chance to win. The model expects 3.5–0.8, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos win	84%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Deportivo Binacional win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Santos or draw	94%	–	–
Santos clean sheet	46%	–	–
Deportivo Binacional clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.1%

0123450 2.2 1 5.7 4.7 2 8.7 6.7 2.7 3 9.1 6.9 2.7 4 7.5 5.6 2.2 5 5.3 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos down, Deportivo Binacional across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Binacional away: 0.67 scored, 5.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.47 goals for Santos, 0.78 for Deportivo Binacional. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–1 DEP · DEP 1–1 SAN · SAN 3–0 DEP · DEP 2–0 SAN

Form · last six in Segunda División

SANTOS

LDLWLW0–2 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

DEPORTIVO BINACIONAL

LLWLDD1–8 · 1–7 · 1–0 · 0–7 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	18	+9	31
3	Minas	18	+15	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
5	Sport Huancayo 2	18	+9	28
6	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+11	26
7	Comerciantes	18	+4	26
8	Santos	17	0	24
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	16	0	22
10	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22
11	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22
12	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22
13	U. San Martin	16	−3	21
14	Estudiantil CNI	17	+4	18
15	Cesar Vallejo	15	−2	17
16	Academia Cantolao	17	−17	12
17	Deportivo Binacional	17	−39	11
18	San Marcos	2	−7	0