Santos v Academia Cantolao prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:30

Santos 1–1 Academia Cantolao SANTOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santos win~~72%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.217

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.911

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santos are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos 72%, draw 17%, Academia Cantolao 11%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Santos v Academia CantolaoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Santos win72%

Draw17%

Academia Cantolao win11%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:15

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Municipal de Nasca

Line-ups

Santos

Academia Cantolao

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos

Academia Cantolao

6Days since last match10

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 7 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Santos

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Izaguirre

32 S. Torres

13 A. Cano

25 P. Toledo

14 G. Quiroz

70 J. Munoz

5 G. Collante

29 D. Taco

20 G. Morales

11 A. S. Rojas Castilla

9 M. Curiel

Coach · Guillermo Salas

Substitutes

22 · C. Roman

4 · A. Fabriccio

8 · Y. Tello

16 · N. Marcos

18 · J. Romero

30 · P. Barrera

10 · L. Aguirre

39 · J. Baylon

6 · C. Flores

Academia Cantolao

Formation not confirmed

35 S. Rojas

27 G. Oliva

15 A. Olmedo

5 A. Laura

24 V. Delgado

16 J. Anicama Lujan

25 J. Cordova

32 S. Taype

10 T. Alessandria

11 D. Saffadi

9 M. Gutierrez

Coach · Francisco Melgar Roose

Substitutes

1 · T. Clavijo

22 · I. Silva

34 · D. Cabello

28 · P. Pizuri

40 · G. Sarmiento

4 · M. Reynaga

26 · R. Cangahuala

77 · J. Salem

Our number · santos winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

72% The market56%

Us72%

~~Market~~56%

We make Santos a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos v Academia Cantolao~~2.46 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 17 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~The market · Santos win~~56% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 72% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos win	72%	56%	+16
Draw	17%	25%	−8
Academia Cantolao win	11%	20%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	61%	55%	+6
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	77%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	40%	34%	+6
Santos or draw	89%	80%	+9
Santos clean sheet	46%	–	–
Academia Cantolao clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 4.9 3.2 1 9.7 8.0 3.1 2 11.4 8.7 3.5 3 9.0 6.8 2.7 4 5.6 4.2 5 3.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos down, Academia Cantolao across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 989 Segunda División matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Academia Cantolao away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.46 goals for Santos, 0.79 for Academia Cantolao. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ACA 0–3 SAN · SAN 2–0 ACA · ACA 1–2 SAN · ACA 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 17 Aug

SANTOS

DLWLWW3–3 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–0

ACADEMIA CANTOLAO

DLWDDL1–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

Santos v Academia Cantolao

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Santos

Academia Cantolao

Rest & schedule

Santos

Academia Cantolao

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Santos

Academia Cantolao

Match statistics

Line-ups

Santos

Academia Cantolao

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 17 Aug