Molinos El Pirata v Union Comercio prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Molinos El PirataDrawUnion Comercio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Union Comercio 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Comercio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Molinos El Pirata 29%, draw 28%, Union Comercio 42%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Molinos El Pirata v Union ComercioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Molinos El Pirata win29%

Draw28%

Union Comercio win42%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Molinos El Pirata

Union Comercio

9Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union comercio winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Union Comercio a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Molinos El Pirata v Union Comercio~~1.04 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 32~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Molinos El Pirata win	29%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Union Comercio win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Molinos El Pirata or draw	58%	–	–
Molinos El Pirata clean sheet	27%	–	–
Union Comercio clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.5 11.9 8.2 3.7 1 9.2 13.0 8.1 3.6 2 5.2 6.5 4.2 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Molinos El Pirata down, Union Comercio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,000 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Molinos El Pirata at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Union Comercio away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Molinos El Pirata, 1.33 for Union Comercio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–0 MOL · MOL 1–2 UNI · UNI 1–2 MOL · UNI 4–1 MOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

MOLINOS EL PIRATA

LDLWWL2–4 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–4

UNION COMERCIO

WLWLWD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	+14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	+5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	+9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	+2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	+1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	−11	14
9	San Marcos	14	−43	0