Molinos El Pirata v Minas prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Molinos El Pirata 1–0 Minas MINAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Minas win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.623

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Minas win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Minas 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Molinos El Pirata v Minas
12′Little has changed for our model: Minas 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
14′Little has changed for our model: Minas 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Minas
34′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Minas
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Minas
45′HALF-TIME Molinos El Pirata 0–0 Minas
46′SECOND HALF Molinos El Pirata 0–0 Minas
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Molinos El Pirata 1–0 Minas
59′⚽ GOAL · 57' Molinos El Pirata 1–0 Minas
59′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Minas · On: G. Pereira · Off: Y. Mena
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Molinos El Pirata
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Molinos El Pirata · On: S. Santos · Off: R. Aliaga
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Minas · On: C. Garcia · Off: S. Santibanez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Minas · On: D. Alania · Off: R. Ardiles
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Molinos El Pirata
90′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Molinos El Pirata
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Molinos El Pirata · On: F. Fernandez · Off: B. Cordara
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Molinos El Pirata · On: M. Morales · Off: D. Tapia
FTFULL TIME Molinos El Pirata 1–0 Minas
FTMolinos El Pirata 1–0 Minas · Minas win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Molinos El Pirata win35%

Draw27%

Minas win39%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Line-ups

Molinos El Pirata

Minas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Molinos El Pirata

Minas

6Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Minas	18	+15	28
12	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Molinos El Pirata

Formation not confirmed

12 R. Quiroz

3 P. Diez Canseco

30 F. Butron

6 J. Navarro

10 K. Lugo

5 H. Hoyos

25 A. Chirinos

4 J. Canova

18 R. Aliaga

17 D. Tapia

7 B. Cordara

Coach · Jahir Butron

Substitutes

24 · F. Larrea

8 · J. Carbajal

32 · M. Suclupe

20 · S. Santos

14 · F. Fernandez

16 · A. Dominguez

22 · A. Rodriguez

26 · J. Rojas

19 · M. Morales

Minas

Formation not confirmed

29 L. Duque

11 T. Carranza

12 L. Baylon

17 M. Correa

14 L. Trujillo

16 H. Escobar

8 S. Lopez

25 R. Ardiles

27 D. Chavez

18 S. Santibanez

9 Y. Mena

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Stein

2 · F. Zamalloa

55 · A. Jimenez

41 · C. Garcia

23 · R. Chinga

21 · J. Rupay

7 · D. Ramirez

19 · D. Alania

33 · G. Pereira

Our number · minas winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Minas a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · minas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Molinos El Pirata win	35%	36%	−1
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Minas win	39%	36%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	54%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	−1
Molinos El Pirata or draw	61%	64%	−3
Molinos El Pirata clean sheet	26%	–	–
Minas clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.8 9.1 6.5 3.1 1 8.6 12.3 8.1 3.8 2 5.8 7.6 5.2 2.5 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Molinos El Pirata down, Minas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 985 Segunda División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Molinos El Pirata at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Minas away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Molinos El Pirata, 1.39 for Minas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Segunda División since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División

MOLINOS EL PIRATA

LDLDLW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

MINAS

DWDWLW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	19	+7	31
3	Minas	18	+15	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
5	Sport Huancayo 2	18	+9	28
6	Santos	18	+4	27
7	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+11	26
8	Comerciantes	19	+2	26
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	17	+2	25
10	U. San Martin	17	−1	24
11	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22
12	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22
13	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22
14	Estudiantil CNI	17	+4	18
15	Cesar Vallejo	15	−2	17
16	Academia Cantolao	17	−17	12
17	Deportivo Binacional	18	−43	11
18	San Marcos	2	−7	0