Deportivo Llacuabamba v Deportiva Agropecuaria prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo LlacuabambaDrawDeportiva Agropecuaria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Llacuabamba 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Llacuabamba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Llacuabamba 51%, draw 30%, Deportiva Agropecuaria 19%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Llacuabamba v Deportiva AgropecuariaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Llacuabamba win51%

Draw30%

Deportiva Agropecuaria win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:15

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Llacuabamba

Deportiva Agropecuaria

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+13	28
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	+2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo llacuabamba winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 05:40 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Deportivo Llacuabamba a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Llacuabamba v Deportiva Agropecuaria~~1.31 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 21~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Llacuabamba win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Llacuabamba win	51%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Deportiva Agropecuaria win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw	81%	–	–
Deportivo Llacuabamba clean sheet	51%	–	–
Deportiva Agropecuaria clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 15.0 8.9 3.2 1 17.1 12.1 4.0 2 11.4 7.6 2.6 3 5.2 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Llacuabamba down, Deportiva Agropecuaria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 998 Segunda División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.78 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deportiva Agropecuaria away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Deportivo Llacuabamba, 0.68 for Deportiva Agropecuaria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~Deportiva Agropecuaria 0–0 Deportivo Llacuabamba · Deportiva Agropecuaria 0–0 Deportivo Llacuabamba · Deportivo Llacuabamba 1–0 Deportiva Agropecuaria · Deportiva Agropecuaria 1–1 Deportivo Llacuabamba

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

DEPORTIVO LLACUABAMBA

LDDWDL2–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

DEPORTIVA AGROPECUARIA

WWDWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	16	+14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	+5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	+9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	+2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	+1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	−11	14
9	San Marcos	14	−43	0