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Model 1.2

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Deportivo Binacional v Santos

Deportivo Binacional
1–2Full time
Santos

Segunda División · FRI 23 OCT · Estadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 00:00
Deportivo Binacional 1–2 Santos SANTOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Santos win56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.296

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santos win at 56%.
  2. 26′A goal for Santos on 1′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–26–51
  3. 27′A goal for Deportivo Binacional on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–27–50
  4. 28′Little has changed for our model: Santos 56% before kick-off, 50% now. 1–1 · 23–27–50
  5. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Santos win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
  6. 43′Santos score on 42′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–16–78
  7. 43′We said Santos at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–2 · 6–16–78
  8. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Deportivo Binacional 1–2 Santos
  9. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Santos win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Binacional 1–2 Santos
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Binacional 1–2 Santos
  12. 55′Santos are down to ten from 55′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 4–16–80
  13. 55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Santos
  14. 56′We said Santos at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 4–16–80
  15. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Santos · On: P. Toledo · Off: G. Morales
  16. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Deportivo Binacional · On: B. Cubas · Off: A. Gastulo
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Santos · On: Y. Tello · Off: M. Curiel
  18. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Deportivo Binacional
  19. 71′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  20. 73′We said Santos at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  21. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Binacional · On: J. Diaz · Off: O. Vasquez
  22. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Santos win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  23. 80′We said Santos at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  24. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Deportivo Binacional
  25. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo Binacional · On: S. Lopez · Off: C. Farfan
  26. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo Binacional · On: S. Angulo · Off: A. Huaraccallo
  27. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Santos · On: J. Romero · Off: D. Taco
  28. 87′We said Santos at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  29. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 56' C. A. Perez Ochoa · Deportivo Binacional
  30. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 83' S. Torres · Santos
  31. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Santos win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  32. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Santos · On: L. Aguirre · Off: S. Torres
  33. FTFULL TIME Deportivo Binacional 1–2 Santos
  34. FTDeportivo Binacional 1–2 Santos · Santos win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Binacional 23%, draw 21%, Santos 56%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Binacional v SantosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Binacional win23%
Draw21%
Santos win56%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 21:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 5

VenueEstadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Binacional

Santos

12Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santos winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 05:41 · locked at kick-off
56% The market–
Us56%

We make Santos a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo Binacional v Santos1.23 – 2.12
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 20:16
Our probability · Santos win

Published at 57%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo Binacional win23%––
Draw21%––
Santos win56%––
Over 2.5 goals63%––
Both teams to score60%––
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals42%––
Deportivo Binacional or draw44%––
Deportivo Binacional clean sheet14%––
Santos clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%
0123450 4.6 7.3 7.5 5.3 3.1 1 4.6 9.5 8.7 5.9 3.3 2 3.2 5.7 5.3 3.5 3 2.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Binacional down, Santos across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsSAN 4–0 DEP · SAN 3–1 DEP · DEP 1–1 SAN · SAN 3–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug

DEPORTIVO BINACIONAL

LWLDDL1–7 · 1–0 · 0–7 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–4

SANTOS

LWLWWD1–3 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1