Deportiva Agropecuaria v Comerciantes prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 05:30

Deportiva Agropecuaria 0–1 Comerciantes DEPORTIVA AGROPECUARIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportiva Agropecuaria win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportiva Agropecuaria are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportiva Agropecuaria 45%, draw 31%, Comerciantes 24%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Deportiva Agropecuaria v ComerciantesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportiva Agropecuaria win45%

Draw31%

Comerciantes win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:15

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Victor Montoya Segura

Line-ups

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Formation not confirmed

88 E. Franco

5 A. Vidal

22 G. Acevedo

33 N. Tecilla

13 L. Cano

26 J. Yllescas

9 F. Rodriguez

28 M. Matzuda

30 J. Marina

37 E. Maciel

19 H. Ruiz

Coach · Jhon Bodmer

Substitutes

1 · F. Caytuiro

20 · J. Tuesta

36 · A. Beltran

24 · R. Raffo

18 · N. Figueroa

7 · L. Duque

15 · P. Ratto

14 · J. Rivera

3 · B. Villalta

Comerciantes

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Silva

5 D. Pinedo

33 J. Valdeblanquez

3 R. Rios

6 F. Arevalo

28 A. Acosta

10 M. Lemos

30 H. Arakaki

15 R. M. Guerrero Fonseca

9 J. Zambrano

29 V. Perlaza

Coach · –

Substitutes

48 · F. Saravia

2 · B. Leon

22 · P. Vargas

19 · A. Ramua

21 · A. Rivas

14 · R. Inuma

7 · J. Bazan

24 · P. N. Rojas Ihuaraqui

20 · P. Labrin

Our number · deportiva agropecuaria winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Deportiva Agropecuaria a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportiva Agropecuaria v Comerciantes~~1.21 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportiva Agropecuaria win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportiva Agropecuaria win	45%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Comerciantes win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw	76%	–	–
Deportiva Agropecuaria clean sheet	46%	–	–
Comerciantes clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 14.8 10.3 4.3 1 15.6 12.9 4.9 2 9.7 7.4 3.0 3 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportiva Agropecuaria down, Comerciantes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 993 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Comerciantes away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Deportiva Agropecuaria, 0.79 for Comerciantes. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~COM 0–2 DEP · DEP 2–2 COM · COM 1–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug

DEPORTIVA AGROPECUARIA

LWWDWW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

COMERCIANTES

DLWLLL2–2 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2

Deportiva Agropecuaria v Comerciantes

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

Rest & schedule

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

Match statistics

Line-ups

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug