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Comerciantes v Deportiva Agropecuaria

Comerciantes

0–2Full time

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Max Augustin

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Comerciantes 0–2 Deportiva Agropecuaria COMERCIANTES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Comerciantes win~~53%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.041

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 49 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Comerciantes win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Comerciantes was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
16′Much as we predicted: Comerciantes was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–32–18
43′We said Comerciantes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–43–16
45′We said Comerciantes at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–44–16
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 48' Comerciantes 0–1 Deportiva Agropecuaria
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Comerciantes · On: P. Vela · Off: A. Acosta
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
62′⚽ GOAL · 48' Comerciantes 0–1 Deportiva Agropecuaria
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Deportiva Agropecuaria · On: J. Rivera · Off: H. Ruiz
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Comerciantes
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Comerciantes
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Comerciantes win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Comerciantes 0–2 Deportiva Agropecuaria
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Deportiva Agropecuaria
FTComerciantes 0–2 Deportiva Agropecuaria · Comerciantes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Comerciantes win53%

Draw29%

Deportiva Agropecuaria win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:15

VenueEstadio Max Augustin

Line-ups

Comerciantes

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Comerciantes

Deportiva Agropecuaria

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Comerciantes	18	+4	26
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	16	0	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Comerciantes

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Silva

5 D. Pinedo

33 J. Valdeblanquez

2 B. Leon

6 F. Arevalo

28 A. Acosta

10 M. Lemos

20 P. Labrin

15 R. M. Guerrero Fonseca

30 H. Arakaki

29 V. Perlaza

Coach · –

Substitutes

48 · F. Saravia

27 · P. Reategui

25 · F. J. Gonzales Cainamari

19 · A. Ramua

21 · A. Rivas

17 · P. Vela

7 · J. Bazan

24 · P. N. Rojas Ihuaraqui

9 · J. Zambrano

Deportiva Agropecuaria

Formation not confirmed

88 E. Franco

5 A. Vidal

22 G. Acevedo

33 N. Tecilla

13 L. Cano

26 J. Yllescas

9 F. Rodriguez

17 M. Matzuda

30 J. Marina

37 E. Maciel

19 H. Ruiz

Coach · Jhon Bodmer

Substitutes

1 · F. Caytuiro

20 · J. Tuesta

36 · A. Beltran

24 · R. Raffo

6 · A. Sanchez

18 · N. Figueroa

15 · P. Ratto

14 · J. Rivera

3 · B. Villalta

Our number · comerciantes winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

53% The market47%

Us53%

~~Market~~47%

We make Comerciantes a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · comerciantes win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comerciantes win	53%	47%	+7
Draw	29%	29%	0
Deportiva Agropecuaria win	18%	25%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Both teams to score	37%	48%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	61%	67%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Comerciantes or draw	82%	75%	+7
Comerciantes clean sheet	51%	–	–
Deportiva Agropecuaria clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 13.8 8.2 3.0 1 17.0 11.8 3.9 2 12.0 7.9 2.7 3 5.7 3.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comerciantes down, Deportiva Agropecuaria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Comerciantes at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportiva Agropecuaria away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Comerciantes, 0.68 for Deportiva Agropecuaria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–2 COM · COM 1–1 DEP

Form · last six in Segunda División

COMERCIANTES

DDLWLL2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–1 · 0–4

DEPORTIVA AGROPECUARIA

DLWWDW0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	18	+9	31
3	Minas	18	+15	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
5	Sport Huancayo 2	18	+9	28
6	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+11	26
7	Comerciantes	18	+4	26
8	Santos	17	0	24
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	16	0	22
10	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22
11	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22
12	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22
13	U. San Martin	16	−3	21
14	Estudiantil CNI	17	+4	18
15	Cesar Vallejo	15	−2	17
16	Academia Cantolao	17	−17	12
17	Deportivo Binacional	17	−39	11
18	San Marcos	2	−7	0