Carlos A. Mannucci v Alianza Universidad prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 05:57

Carlos A. Mannucci 3–1 Alianza Universidad CARLOS A. MANNUCCI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Carlos A. Mannucci win~~56%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.289

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.329

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Carlos A. Mannucci win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Carlos A. Mannucci was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
1′KICK-OFF Carlos A. Mannucci v Alianza Universidad
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Alianza Universidad
7′Carlos A. Mannucci find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–6
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Carlos A. Mannucci 1–0 Alianza Universidad
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Carlos A. Mannucci win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
9′We published Carlos A. Mannucci at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–6
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Carlos A. Mannucci 2–0 Alianza Universidad
15′A goal for Carlos A. Mannucci on 14′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Carlos A. Mannucci win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
17′We published Carlos A. Mannucci at 56%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
23′We published Carlos A. Mannucci at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Alianza Universidad
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Carlos A. Mannucci
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Carlos A. Mannucci win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Alianza Universidad
41′PENALTY MISSED · 41' Carlos A. Mannucci
45′HALF-TIME Carlos A. Mannucci 2–0 Alianza Universidad
46′PENALTY MISSED · 41' J. Munoz · Carlos A. Mannucci
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Mautino · Alianza Universidad
46′🟥 RED CARD · 47' A. Mautino · Alianza Universidad
46′SECOND HALF Carlos A. Mannucci 2–0 Alianza Universidad
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alianza Universidad · On: J. Sernaque · Off: H. Zeta
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alianza Universidad · On: S. Cavero · Off: C. Montoya
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Carlos A. Mannucci 2–1 Alianza Universidad
65′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: L. Alvarez · Off: J. Rios
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: Joaquín Aguirre · Off: Jose munoz Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: Relly Fernández · Off: Javier Núñez Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: R. Fernandez · Off: J. Nunez
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Alianza Universidad
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Alianza Universidad
83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Alianza Universidad
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Carlos A. Mannucci 3–1 Alianza Universidad
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Alianza Universidad
87′⚽ GOAL · 83' Carlos A. Mannucci 3–1 Alianza Universidad
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Alianza Universidad · On: P. Peral · Off: V. Labrin
FTFULL TIME Carlos A. Mannucci 3–1 Alianza Universidad
FTCarlos A. Mannucci 3–1 Alianza Universidad · Carlos A. Mannucci win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 01:30 · locked at kick-off

Carlos A. Mannucci win56%

Draw24%

Alianza Universidad win20%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 02:00

VenueEstadio Mansiche

Line-ups

Carlos A. Mannucci

Alianza Universidad

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Carlos A. Mannucci

Alianza Universidad

5Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
11	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Carlos A. Mannucci

Formation not confirmed

49 G. Valladares

3 V. Salazar

31 E. Caballero

4 K. Aparicio

34 A. Montalva

8 F. Acosta

22 J. Rios

10 J. Munoz

11 J. Nunez

9 J. Murillo

99 G. Rodriguez

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Vargas

5 · J. Aguirre

14 · L. Alvarez

25 · V. Flores

19 · A. Solar

27 · R. Fernandez

30 · B. Portugal

90 · M. Malpartida

28 · J. Olano

Alianza Universidad

Formation not confirmed

23 C. Mosquera

47 S. Ramirez

25 C. Montoya

30 F. Ortega

18 J. Cuero

6 R. Palomino

16 M. Valverde

15 T. Angulo

17 A. Mautino

11 E. O. Vasquez Ortega

9 H. Zeta

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · W. Diaz

29 · V. Labrin

5 · P. Peral

67 · K. Paico

38 · L. Mena

10 · J. Sernaque

35 · S. Cavero

4 · E. Mogollon

24 · A. Succar

Our number · carlos a. mannucci winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 01:30 · locked at kick-off

56% The market53%

Us56%

~~Market~~53%

We make Carlos A. Mannucci a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · carlos a. mannucci win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carlos A. Mannucci win	56%	53%	+3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Alianza Universidad win	20%	21%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	0
Carlos A. Mannucci or draw	80%	79%	+1
Carlos A. Mannucci clean sheet	40%	–	–
Alianza Universidad clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.8 6.1 3.0 1 11.6 11.2 5.0 2 10.3 9.2 4.3 3 6.1 5.5 2.5 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carlos A. Mannucci down, Alianza Universidad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 985 Segunda División matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Carlos A. Mannucci at home: 2.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Universidad away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Carlos A. Mannucci, 0.93 for Alianza Universidad. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Segunda División since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Segunda División

CARLOS A. MANNUCCI

LDWWWD0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 7–0 · 0–0

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD

WLDDDL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Comercio	17	+10	32
2	Bentín Tacna Heroica	19	+7	31
3	Minas	18	+15	28
4	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	+11	28
5	Sport Huancayo 2	18	+9	28
6	Santos	18	+4	27
7	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	+11	26
8	Comerciantes	19	+2	26
9	Deportiva Agropecuaria	17	+2	25
10	U. San Martin	17	−1	24
11	Alianza Universidad	18	−1	22
12	Molinos El Pirata	16	−1	22
13	Ayacucho FC	18	−3	22
14	Estudiantil CNI	17	+4	18
15	Cesar Vallejo	15	−2	17
16	Academia Cantolao	17	−17	12
17	Deportivo Binacional	18	−43	11
18	San Marcos	2	−7	0