Bentín Tacna Heroica v U. San Martin prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 05:30

Bentín Tacna Heroica 1–2 U. San Martin BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bentín Tacna Heroica win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bentín Tacna Heroica are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bentín Tacna Heroica 63%, draw 22%, U. San Martin 16%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bentín Tacna Heroica v U. San MartinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bentín Tacna Heroica win63%

Draw22%

U. San Martin win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:15

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Jorge Basadre

Line-ups

Bentín Tacna Heroica

U. San Martin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bentín Tacna Heroica

U. San Martin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bentín Tacna Heroica

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Sotillo

30 J. Fajardo

15 F. Aragon

2 R. Benavente

17 K. Flores

18 C. Ventura

24 A. Perez

8 J. Lopez

14 G. Loayza

10 J. Garcia

26 K. Rodriguez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Montalvo

29 · I. A. Garrafa Tapia

28 · J. Mendoza

3 · D. Alvarado

20 · A. Garcia

27 · J. Linares

7 · K. Palomino

6 · P. Leon

U. San Martin

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Ynamine

17 J. Reyes

4 Otavio Gut

5 A. Ampuero

19 I. Chumpitaz

24 K. Pena

16 S. Sanchez

8 V. Sanchez

10 E. Oliva

18 A. Arteaga

70 C. Lopez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. L. Mayta Boza

39 · F. Vera

23 · R. Vargas

7 · J. Arroe

13 · C. Vega

29 · D. Ismodes

14 · R. Torres

9 · M. Affonso

6 · R. Cuba

Our number · bentín tacna heroica winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Bentín Tacna Heroica a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bentín Tacna Heroica v U. San Martin~~2.01 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 24 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bentín Tacna Heroica win	63%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
U. San Martin win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Bentín Tacna Heroica or draw	84%	–	–
Bentín Tacna Heroica clean sheet	42%	–	–
U. San Martin clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.6 4.7 2.3 1 11.0 10.1 4.2 2 11.0 9.3 4.1 3 7.3 6.2 2.7 4 3.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bentín Tacna Heroica down, U. San Martin across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 993 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bentín Tacna Heroica at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). U. San Martin away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Bentín Tacna Heroica, 0.88 for U. San Martin. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~USA 2–0 BEN · BEN 2–0 USA · USA 2–1 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 24 Aug

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA

LWDDDL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

U. SAN MARTIN

WLDLWW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 2–1 · 2–0

Bentín Tacna Heroica v U. San Martin

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Bentín Tacna Heroica

U. San Martin

Rest & schedule

Bentín Tacna Heroica

U. San Martin

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Bentín Tacna Heroica

U. San Martin

Match statistics

Line-ups

Bentín Tacna Heroica

U. San Martin

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 24 Aug