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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División › Bentín Tacna Heroica v Alianza Universidad

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Bentín Tacna Heroica v Alianza Universidad

Bentín Tacna Heroica
20:15Upcoming
Alianza Universidad

Segunda División · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Jorge Basadre

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bentín Tacna HeroicaDrawAlianza Universidad
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:15
Before kick-off · Match result · Bentín Tacna Heroica 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bentín Tacna Heroica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bentín Tacna Heroica 53%, draw 26%, Alianza Universidad 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Bentín Tacna Heroica v Alianza UniversidadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bentín Tacna Heroica win53%
Draw26%
Alianza Universidad win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:15

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 5

VenueEstadio Jorge Basadre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bentín Tacna Heroica

Alianza Universidad

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bentín tacna heroica winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 05:40 · locked at kick-off
53% The market–
Us53%

We make Bentín Tacna Heroica a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bentín Tacna Heroica v Alianza Universidad1.63 – 0.92
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 AugW1 D3 L2 · W0 D4 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 19 OCT 01:3724 OCT 23:43
Our probability · Bentín Tacna Heroica win

Published at 55%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bentín Tacna Heroica win53%––
Draw26%––
Alianza Universidad win21%––
Over 2.5 goals47%––
Both teams to score48%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Bentín Tacna Heroica or draw79%––
Bentín Tacna Heroica clean sheet40%––
Alianza Universidad clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%
0123450 8.8 6.9 3.4 1 12.2 11.8 5.2 2 10.1 9.1 4.2 3 5.6 5.0 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bentín Tacna Heroica down, Alianza Universidad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsALI 2–2 BEN · ALI 1–0 BEN · BEN 0–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 Aug

BENTÍN TACNA HEROICA

WDDDLL3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD

DDDLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1