Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División › Ayacucho FC v Union Comercio

Back
Peru flag

Ayacucho FC v Union Comercio

Ayacucho FC
1–1Full time
Union Comercio

Segunda División · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31
Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio UNION COMERCIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Union Comercio win41%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.787
The market’s Brier score0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Union Comercio win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Union Comercio was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ayacucho FC v Union Comercio
  4. 7′Union Comercio find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ayacucho FC 0–1 Union Comercio
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 9′We published Union Comercio at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  8. 10′A goal for Ayacucho FC on 9′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–30–40
  9. 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
  10. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Ayacucho FC
  12. 17′J. Morales scores for Ayacucho FC on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–31–39
  13. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Union Comercio
  14. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Union Comercio
  15. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Union Comercio win 34%)
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
  18. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  19. 54′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–47–29
  20. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Ayacucho FC
  21. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Ayacucho FC
  22. 59′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 22–51–27
  23. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Ayacucho FC
  24. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Union Comercio · On: W. Mimbela · Off: M. Palacios
  25. 65′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
  26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  27. 72′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
  28. 78′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
  29. 81′A red card for Ayacucho FC on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 9–79–11
  30. 81′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Ayacucho FC
  31. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  32. 83′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–83–9
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Comercio · On: M. Carranza · Off: D. Vargas
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Comercio · On: J. Ayala · Off: E. Cruz
  35. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Union Comercio · On: C. Vargas · Off: G. Guerrero
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ayacucho FC · On: F. Mezarina · Off: E. Gonzales
  37. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ayacucho FC · On: M. Diaz · Off: J. Morales
  38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ayacucho FC · On: A. Ochante · Off: M. Infante
  39. 90′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
  40. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Ayacucho FC
  41. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Union Comercio
  42. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  43. FTFULL TIME Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
  44. FTAyacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio · Union Comercio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Comercio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayacucho FC 31%, draw 28%, Union Comercio 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ayacucho FC v Union ComercioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ayacucho FC win31%
Draw28%
Union Comercio win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 4

Line-ups

Ayacucho FC

Union Comercio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayacucho FC

Union Comercio

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ayacucho FC

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Acosta

22 J. Velasquez

29 S. Lojas

25 C. H. Albornoz

19 A. Tamariz

17 J. Tuesta

6 F. Banega

11 S. Barboza

15 E. Gonzales

7 M. Infante

21 J. Morales

Coach · Sergio Castellanos

Substitutes

30 · O. Cabrera

2 · H. Aquino

14 · A. Ochante

18 · C. Huyhua

10 · F. Mezarina

9 · Q. Melendez

24 · M. Diaz

33 · R. Salcedo

4 · Y. Gavilan

Union Comercio

Formation not confirmed

28 L. Garcia

34 E. Cruz

97 P. Serra

5 E. Alvarez

24 Javier Navea

25 E. Paucar

17 D. Vargas

31 A. Pinedo

20 M. Palacios

10 G. Guerrero

99 B. Goluz Pena

Coach · Juan Malpica

Substitutes

12 · S. Amasifuen

11 · M. Carranza

21 · R. Gomez

3 · M. Peralta

30 · A. Calero

18 · J. Ayala

23 · W. Mimbela

7 · C. Vargas

15 · C. Vargas

Our number · union comercio winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off
41% The market50%
Us41%
Market50%

We make Union Comercio a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ayacucho FC v Union Comercio1.11 – 1.34
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 AugW2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2
The market · Union Comercio win50% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 18:47
Our probability · Union Comercio win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ayacucho FC win31%23%+8
Draw28%27%+1
Union Comercio win41%50%−9
Over 2.5 goals44%47%−3
Both teams to score48%50%−2
Over 1.5 goals70%70%0
Over 3.5 goals23%27%−4
Ayacucho FC or draw59%50%+9
Ayacucho FC clean sheet27%––
Union Comercio clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 9.8 11.1 7.7 3.6 1 9.2 12.8 8.0 3.6 2 5.4 6.8 4.4 3 2.1 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ayacucho FC down, Union Comercio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsUNI 5–0 AYA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug

AYACUCHO FC

WLLWLL7–1 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–5

UNION COMERCIO

DWLWLW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 5–0