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Ayacucho FC v Union Comercio
Ayacucho FC
Union ComercioSegunda División · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Union Comercio win at 41%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Union Comercio was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
- 1′KICK-OFF Ayacucho FC v Union Comercio
- 7′Union Comercio find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ayacucho FC 0–1 Union Comercio
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
- 9′We published Union Comercio at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
- 10′A goal for Ayacucho FC on 9′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–30–40
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
- 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
- 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Ayacucho FC
- 17′J. Morales scores for Ayacucho FC on 10′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–31–39
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Union Comercio
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Union Comercio
- 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Union Comercio win 34%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
- 46′SECOND HALF Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
- 54′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–47–29
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Ayacucho FC
- 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Ayacucho FC
- 59′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 22–51–27
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Ayacucho FC
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Union Comercio · On: W. Mimbela · Off: M. Palacios
- 65′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–57–24
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
- 72′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
- 78′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
- 81′A red card for Ayacucho FC on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 9–79–11
- 81′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Ayacucho FC
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
- 83′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–83–9
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Comercio · On: M. Carranza · Off: D. Vargas
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Comercio · On: J. Ayala · Off: E. Cruz
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Union Comercio · On: C. Vargas · Off: G. Guerrero
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ayacucho FC · On: F. Mezarina · Off: E. Gonzales
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ayacucho FC · On: M. Diaz · Off: J. Morales
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ayacucho FC · On: A. Ochante · Off: M. Infante
- 90′We said Union Comercio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Ayacucho FC
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Union Comercio
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Union Comercio win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
- FTFULL TIME Ayacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio
- FTAyacucho FC 1–1 Union Comercio · Union Comercio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Union Comercio are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Ayacucho FC 31%, draw 28%, Union Comercio 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Ayacucho FC win31%
Union Comercio win41%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00
RoundPromotion Group · matchday 4
Match timeline
All events
Ayacucho FCMIN
Union ComercioEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Ayacucho FC
Union Comercio
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ayacucho FC
Union Comercio
Last match: 12 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División
Last match: 12 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Ayacucho FC
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Acosta
22 J. Velasquez
29 S. Lojas
25 C. H. Albornoz
19 A. Tamariz
17 J. Tuesta
6 F. Banega
11 S. Barboza
15 E. Gonzales
7 M. Infante
21 J. Morales
Coach · Sergio Castellanos
Substitutes
30 · O. Cabrera
2 · H. Aquino
14 · A. Ochante
18 · C. Huyhua
10 · F. Mezarina
9 · Q. Melendez
24 · M. Diaz
33 · R. Salcedo
4 · Y. Gavilan
Union Comercio
Formation not confirmed
28 L. Garcia
34 E. Cruz
97 P. Serra
5 E. Alvarez
24 Javier Navea
25 E. Paucar
17 D. Vargas
31 A. Pinedo
20 M. Palacios
10 G. Guerrero
99 B. Goluz Pena
Coach · Juan Malpica
Substitutes
12 · S. Amasifuen
11 · M. Carranza
21 · R. Gomez
3 · M. Peralta
30 · A. Calero
18 · J. Ayala
23 · W. Mimbela
7 · C. Vargas
15 · C. Vargas
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Ayacucho FC
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Acosta
22 J. Velasquez
29 S. Lojas
25 C. H. Albornoz
19 A. Tamariz
17 J. Tuesta
6 F. Banega
11 S. Barboza
15 E. Gonzales
7 M. Infante
21 J. Morales
Coach · Sergio Castellanos
Substitutes
30 · O. Cabrera
2 · H. Aquino
14 · A. Ochante
18 · C. Huyhua
10 · F. Mezarina
9 · Q. Melendez
24 · M. Diaz
33 · R. Salcedo
4 · Y. Gavilan
Union Comercio
Formation not confirmed
28 L. Garcia
34 E. Cruz
97 P. Serra
5 E. Alvarez
24 Javier Navea
25 E. Paucar
17 D. Vargas
31 A. Pinedo
20 M. Palacios
10 G. Guerrero
99 B. Goluz Pena
Coach · Juan Malpica
Substitutes
12 · S. Amasifuen
11 · M. Carranza
21 · R. Gomez
3 · M. Peralta
30 · A. Calero
18 · J. Ayala
23 · W. Mimbela
7 · C. Vargas
15 · C. Vargas
We make Union Comercio a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 35%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayacucho FC win | 31% | 23% | +8 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Union Comercio win | 41% | 50% | −9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 27% | −4 |
| Ayacucho FC or draw | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Ayacucho FC clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Union Comercio clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug
AYACUCHO FC
UNION COMERCIO