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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División › Alianza Universidad v U. San Martin

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Alianza Universidad v U. San Martin

Alianza Universidad
20:15Upcoming
U. San Martin

Segunda División · SAT 31 OCT · Estadio Heraclio Tapia

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alianza UniversidadDrawU. San Martin
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:15
Before kick-off · Match result · Alianza Universidad 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Universidad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Universidad 57%, draw 23%, U. San Martin 20%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Universidad v U. San MartinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Universidad win57%
Draw23%
U. San Martin win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:15

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 6

VenueEstadio Heraclio Tapia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Universidad

U. San Martin

14Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza universidad winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off
57% The market–
Us57%

We make Alianza Universidad a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Alianza Universidad v U. San Martin1.89 – 1.02
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 SeptW0 D4 L2 · W3 D1 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Alianza Universidad win57%––
Draw23%––
U. San Martin win20%––
Over 2.5 goals55%––
Both teams to score53%––
Over 1.5 goals78%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
Alianza Universidad or draw80%––
Alianza Universidad clean sheet37%––
U. San Martin clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 6.5 5.3 2.9 1 10.0 10.7 5.2 2 9.6 9.4 4.7 3 6.1 5.9 3.0 4 3.0 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Universidad down, U. San Martin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsUSA 2–1 ALI · ALI 3–1 USA · USA 2–3 ALI · ALI 2–2 USA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 6 Sept

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD

DDDLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

U. SAN MARTIN

LDLWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1