Alianza Universidad v Carlos A. Mannucci prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Alianza Universidad 1–1 Carlos A. Mannucci ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Alianza Universidad win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.786

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alianza Universidad win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alianza Universidad 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Alianza Universidad v Carlos A. Mannucci
11′Carlos A. Mannucci find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–57
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Alianza Universidad 0–1 Carlos A. Mannucci
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Alianza Universidad win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Carlos A. Mannucci win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Alianza Universidad win 21%)
12′We said Alianza Universidad at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–57
17′We said Alianza Universidad at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Alianza Universidad
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Carlos A. Mannucci
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Alianza Universidad win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
36′We said Alianza Universidad at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' S. Cavero · Alianza Universidad
45′HALF-TIME Alianza Universidad 0–1 Carlos A. Mannucci
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Alianza Universidad
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' J. Nunez · Carlos A. Mannucci
46′SECOND HALF Alianza Universidad 0–1 Carlos A. Mannucci
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Carlos A. Mannucci
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alianza Universidad · On: C. Montoya · Off: A. Succar
49′Alianza Universidad are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 10–24–66
49′🟥 RED CARD · 45+3' Alianza Universidad
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Alianza Universidad
82′We said Alianza Universidad at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–11–89
82′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Alianza Universidad · On: J. Dominguez · Off: M. Valverde
82′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: R. Fernandez · Off: J. Nunez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alianza Universidad · On: J. Alvirena · Off: T. Angulo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: L. Alvarez · Off: J. Rios
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alianza Universidad · On: A. Casquete · Off: J. Sernaque
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alianza Universidad · On: H. Zeta · Off: E. O. Vasquez Ortega
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Alianza Universidad win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
89′A goal for Alianza Universidad on 89′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–90–4
89′We said Alianza Universidad at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–90–4
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Alianza Universidad 1–1 Carlos A. Mannucci
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Carlos A. Mannucci win 4%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Carlos A. Mannucci · On: A. Solar · Off: G. Rodriguez
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' R. Palomino · Alianza Universidad
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Alianza Universidad
FTFULL TIME Alianza Universidad 1–1 Carlos A. Mannucci
FTAlianza Universidad 1–1 Carlos A. Mannucci · Alianza Universidad win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Universidad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Universidad 45%, draw 26%, Carlos A. Mannucci 29%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Universidad v Carlos A. MannucciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Universidad win45%

Draw26%

Carlos A. Mannucci win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Heraclio Tapia

Line-ups

Alianza Universidad

Carlos A. Mannucci

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Universidad

Carlos A. Mannucci

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Peruvian Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alianza Universidad

Formation not confirmed

23 C. Mosquera

18 J. Cuero

47 S. Ramirez

30 F. Ortega

35 S. Cavero

6 R. Palomino

11 E. O. Vasquez Ortega

10 J. Sernaque

16 M. Valverde

15 T. Angulo

24 A. Succar

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · W. Diaz

29 · V. Labrin

7 · A. Casquete

67 · K. Paico

27 · O. Cuneo

25 · C. Montoya

99 · J. Alvirena

19 · J. Dominguez

9 · H. Zeta

Carlos A. Mannucci

Formation not confirmed

49 G. Valladares

3 V. Salazar

31 E. Caballero

4 K. Aparicio

34 A. Montalva

8 F. Acosta

22 J. Rios

10 J. Munoz

11 J. Nunez

9 J. Murillo

99 G. Rodriguez

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Vargas

28 · J. Olano

5 · J. Aguirre

14 · L. Alvarez

25 · V. Flores

19 · A. Solar

27 · R. Fernandez

30 · B. Portugal

90 · M. Malpartida

Our number · alianza universidad winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Alianza Universidad a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Universidad v Carlos A. Mannucci~~1.52 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 23 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~The market · Alianza Universidad win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza Universidad win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Universidad win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Carlos A. Mannucci win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Alianza Universidad or draw	71%	72%	−1
Alianza Universidad clean sheet	32%	–	–
Carlos A. Mannucci clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 7.6 4.7 1 10.0 12.0 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 8.7 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Universidad down, Carlos A. Mannucci across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 989 Segunda División matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Universidad at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Carlos A. Mannucci away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Alianza Universidad, 1.17 for Carlos A. Mannucci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAR 3–1 ALI · CAR 1–1 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 23 Aug

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD

LDDDLL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

CARLOS A. MANNUCCI

DWWWDW0–0 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 7–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

Alianza Universidad v Carlos A. Mannucci

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Alianza Universidad

Carlos A. Mannucci

Rest & schedule

Alianza Universidad

Carlos A. Mannucci

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Alianza Universidad

Carlos A. Mannucci

Match statistics

Line-ups

Alianza Universidad

Carlos A. Mannucci

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 23 Aug