UTC Cajamarca v Sporting Cristal prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting Cristal SPORTING CRISTAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Cristal win~~51%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.402

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Cristal win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting Cristal 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 26–23–51
20′Sporting Cristal ahead on 12′ through Luis Iberico. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–74
30′Sporting Cristal ahead on 12′ through Luis Iberico. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–17–74
45′We said Sporting Cristal at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
46′We said Sporting Cristal at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
63′We said Sporting Cristal at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
84′UTC Cajamarca are down to ten from 82′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–7–93
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Sporting Cristal win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting Cristal
FTUTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting Cristal · Sporting Cristal win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 07:15

UTC Cajamarca win27%

Draw23%

Sporting Cristal win51%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Héroes de San Ramón

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

Sporting Cristal

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

UTC Cajamarca

Sporting Cristal

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

1 Ángelo Campos

35 Gilmar Paredes

3 Manuel Ganoza

2 Bruno Duarte

6 Francesco Cavagna

15 Joshua Cantt

16 Arquímedes Figuera

22 David Camacho

10 Marcos Lliuya

7 Jhosep Nuñez

9 Marlon de Jesús

Coach · C. Molins

Substitutes

19 · Adolfo Muñoz

11 · Abdiel Arroyo

18 · Santiago Gálvez

21 · Ricardo Bettocchi

29 · Ignacio Barrios

17 · Luis Garro

13 · Dylan Caro

88 · Luis Arce

Sporting Cristal

4-4-2

1 Diego Enríquez

8 Leandro Sosa

20 Miguel Araujo

5 Rafael Lutiger

90 Cristiano

7 Santiago González

6 Agustín Álvarez

19 Yoshimar Yotún

23 Maxloren Castro

22 Michael Hoyos

16 Luis Iberico

Coach · R. Mosquera

Substitutes

96 · Luis Abram

27 · Gabriel Santana

25 · Martín Távara

29 · Hernán Barcos

77 · Juan Manuel Cuesta

33 · César Bautista

18 · Juan Cruz Gonzalez

21 · Catriel Cabellos

11 · Irven Ávila

Our number · sporting cristal winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market48%

Us51%

~~Market~~48%

We make Sporting Cristal a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UTC Cajamarca win	27%	26%	+1
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Sporting Cristal win	51%	48%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%	+5
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	77%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	38%	35%	+3
UTC Cajamarca or draw	49%	52%	−2
UTC Cajamarca clean sheet	16%	–	–
Sporting Cristal clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.7 8.0 7.5 4.6 2.2 1 5.6 10.4 9.3 5.8 2.7 2 3.7 6.5 5.9 3.7 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UTC Cajamarca down, Sporting Cristal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,812 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 248 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UTC Cajamarca at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Cristal away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for UTC Cajamarca, 1.86 for Sporting Cristal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–2 UTC · SPO 2–2 UTC · UTC 4–1 SPO · SPO 4–0 UTC

Form · last six in Primera División

UTC CAJAMARCA

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3

SPORTING CRISTAL

WLLWWW4–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	+14	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	−6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	−10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	−3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	−11	28
16	ADT	28	−13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20