UTC Cajamarca v FBC Melgar prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC Melgar FBC MELGAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FBC Melgar win~~49%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FBC Melgar win at 49%.
2′Much as we predicted: FBC Melgar was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
2′KICK-OFF UTC Cajamarca v FBC Melgar
7′We published FBC Melgar at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 10–16–74
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' UTC Cajamarca 0–1 FBC Melgar
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' FBC Melgar win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
8′FBC Melgar score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–16–74
21′We published FBC Melgar at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 7–17–75
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' David Dioses · UTC Cajamarca
45′9 shots for UTC Cajamarca, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–77
45′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Manuel Ganoza · UTC Cajamarca
45′SECOND HALF UTC Cajamarca 0–1 FBC Melgar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FBC Melgar · On: Marcos Portillo · Off: Walter Tandazo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' UTC Cajamarca · On: Abdiel Arroyo · Off: Marlon de Jesús
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' UTC Cajamarca · On: Dylan Caro · Off: Francesco Cavagna
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45+3' FBC Melgar · On: Jefferson Caceres · Off: Bernardo Cuesta
49′HALF-TIME UTC Cajamarca 0–1 FBC Melgar
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' FBC Melgar win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
58′We published FBC Melgar at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' UTC Cajamarca · On: Joshua Cantt · Off: David Dioses
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Juan Escobar · FBC Melgar
66′UTC Cajamarca have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–82
69′We published FBC Melgar at 49%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
69′FBC Melgar ahead on 68′ through Nicolas Quagliata. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' UTC Cajamarca 0–2 FBC Melgar
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' FBC Melgar win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' UTC Cajamarca · On: Jhosep Nunez · Off: Luis Arce
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' UTC Cajamarca · On: Gilmar Paredes · Off: David Camacho
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FBC Melgar win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Joshua Cantt · UTC Cajamarca
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FBC Melgar · On: Jesús Alcantar · Off: Nicolas Quagliata
81′We published FBC Melgar at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FBC Melgar · On: Franco Zanelatto · Off: Johnny Vidales
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC Melgar
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FBC Melgar win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
88′Luis Garro scores for UTC Cajamarca on 87′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
89′UTC Cajamarca have had 16 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Jesús Alcantar · FBC Melgar
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' FBC Melgar win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Cristian Bordacahar · FBC Melgar
FTFULL TIME UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC Melgar
FTUTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC Melgar · FBC Melgar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FBC Melgar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UTC Cajamarca 26%, draw 25%, FBC Melgar 49%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on UTC Cajamarca v FBC MelgarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

UTC Cajamarca win26%

Draw25%

FBC Melgar win49%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Héroes de San Ramón

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

FBC Melgar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UTC Cajamarca

FBC Melgar

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FBC Melgar	29	+18	50
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	−20	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca

4-2-3-1

1 Á. Campos

17 L. Garro

3 M. Ganoza

2 B. Duarte

6 F. Cavagna

8 D. Dioses

88 L. Arce

22 D. Camacho

10 M. Lliuya

19 A. Muñoz

9 M. de Jesús

Coach · C. Molins

Substitutes

11 · A. Arroyo

29 · I. Barrios

21 · R. Bettocchi

15 · J. Cerro

13 · D. Caro

18 · S. Gálvez

7 · J. Nunez

35 · G. Paredes

FBC Melgar

4-2-3-1

21 J. Cabezudo

33 M. Lazo

23 J. Escobar

3 L. González

27 N. Cabanillas

66 H. Orzán

24 W. Tandazo

7 C. Bordacahar

10 N. Quagliata

11 J. Vidales

9 B. Cuesta

Coach · M. Rondelli

Substitutes

45 · Matias Zegarra

77 · F. Zanelatto

26 · M. Portillo

8 · L. Guzmán

5 · A. Deneumostier

80 · J. D´Arrigo

16 · J. Cáceres

12 · C. Cáceda

90 · J. Alcántar

Our number · fbc melgar winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market59%

Us49%

~~Market~~59%

We make FBC Melgar a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UTC Cajamarca v FBC Melgar~~1.10 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 50~~18 v 3

~~The market · FBC Melgar win~~59% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FBC Melgar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UTC Cajamarca win	26%	18%	+8
Draw	25%	23%	+2
FBC Melgar win	49%	59%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
UTC Cajamarca or draw	51%	41%	+10
UTC Cajamarca clean sheet	20%	–	–
FBC Melgar clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.8 10.6 8.6 4.7 1 7.3 11.6 9.3 5.0 2.1 2 4.1 6.4 5.1 2.7 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UTC Cajamarca down, FBC Melgar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 261 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UTC Cajamarca at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FBC Melgar away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for UTC Cajamarca, 1.62 for FBC Melgar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FBC 2–0 UTC · UTC 1–2 FBC · FBC 3–0 UTC · FBC 1–0 UTC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

UTC CAJAMARCA

LLLLLL2–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

FBC MELGAR

LWWDDW0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	Universitario	29	+15	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	+18	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	29	−14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	−20	15