UTC Cajamarca v Deportivo Garcilaso prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UTC CajamarcaDrawDeportivo Garcilaso

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Garcilaso 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Garcilaso are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UTC Cajamarca 32%, draw 27%, Deportivo Garcilaso 41%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on UTC Cajamarca v Deportivo GarcilasoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

UTC Cajamarca win32%

Draw27%

Deportivo Garcilaso win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Heroes de San Ramon

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UTC Cajamarca

Deportivo Garcilaso

8Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo garcilaso winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Deportivo Garcilaso a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UTC Cajamarca v Deportivo Garcilaso~~1.15 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 48~~18 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UTC Cajamarca win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Deportivo Garcilaso win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
UTC Cajamarca or draw	59%	–	–
UTC Cajamarca clean sheet	27%	–	–
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.6 11.1 7.4 3.3 1 9.6 12.7 8.3 3.7 2 5.6 7.2 4.8 2.1 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UTC Cajamarca down, Deportivo Garcilaso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 265 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.57 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UTC Cajamarca at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Garcilaso away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for UTC Cajamarca, 1.33 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.57

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–0 UTC · DEP 0–0 UTC · UTC 2–1 DEP · DEP 1–0 UTC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

UTC CAJAMARCA

LLLLLL2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO

WWLWLL1–0 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	−2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	+1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	−7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	30	−14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15