Universitario v Juan Pablo II College prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UniversitarioDrawJuan Pablo II College

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Universitario 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universitario are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universitario 74%, draw 16%, Juan Pablo II College 10%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Universitario v Juan Pablo II CollegeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Universitario win74%

Draw16%

Juan Pablo II College win10%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Monumental U Marathon

RefereeJoel Alarcon

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universitario

Juan Pablo II College

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Peruvian Primera División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · universitario winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

74% The market68%

Us74%

~~Market~~68%

We make Universitario a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universitario v Juan Pablo II College~~2.41 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 53 v 38~~3 v 12

~~The market · Universitario win~~68% · ours 74%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universitario win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universitario win	74%	68%	+6
Draw	16%	19%	−3
Juan Pablo II College win	10%	13%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Universitario or draw	90%	87%	+3
Universitario clean sheet	48%	–	–
Juan Pablo II College clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.3%

0123450 4.5 3.2 1 10.4 7.7 2.9 2 12.3 9.0 3.4 3 9.8 7.2 2.7 4 6.0 4.4 5 3.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Universitario down, Juan Pablo II College across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,827 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 263 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universitario at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Juan Pablo II College away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Universitario, 0.74 for Juan Pablo II College. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JUA 1–4 UNI · UNI 3–0 JUA · JUA 2–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

UNIVERSITARIO

WDWLDW4–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 4–1

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE

WDWWDW4–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	29	+29	62
2	FBC Melgar	30	+19	53
3	Universitario	29	+15	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	−8	46
7	Cusco	29	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	+11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	−5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	−1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	−8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	−7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	−5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	−12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	−18	28
17	ADT	29	−14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	−21	15