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Universitario v FBC Melgar

Universitario

2–2Full time

FBC Melgar

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Monumental U Marathon

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar UNIVERSITARIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universitario win~~55%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.909

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universitario win at 55%.
0′KICK-OFF Universitario v FBC Melgar
1′Much as we predicted: Universitario was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
2′Much as we predicted: Universitario was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Caín Fara · Universitario
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Juan Escobar · FBC Melgar
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Universitario 0–1 FBC Melgar
38′⚽ GOAL · 39' Universitario 0–1 FBC Melgar · Nicolas Quagliata
45′SECOND HALF Universitario 0–1 FBC Melgar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Universitario · On: Piero Quispe · Off: Jorge Murrugarra
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Universitario 0–2 FBC Melgar · Bernardo Cuesta
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Universitario 0–2 FBC Melgar · Cristian Bordacahar
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Walter Tandazo · FBC Melgar
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Universitario · On: Lisandro Alzugaray · Off: Gianluca Lapadula
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Universitario · On: Edison Flores · Off: Caín Fara
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FBC Melgar · On: Johnny Vidales · Off: Lautaro Guzmán
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FBC Melgar · On: Matias Zegarra · Off: Bernardo Cuesta
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FBC Melgar · On: Jesús Alcantar · Off: Nelson Cabanillas
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Universitario · On: José Rivera · Off: Jairo Concha
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Universitario 1–2 FBC Melgar · Cristian Bordacahar
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Universitario 1–2 FBC Melgar · Alex Valera
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar · Alex Valera
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Matias Zegarra · FBC Melgar
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar · Alex Valera
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Universitario · On: Juan Manuel Requena · Off: Horacio Calcaterra
FTFULL TIME Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar
FTUniversitario 2–2 FBC Melgar · Universitario win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Universitario win55%

Draw25%

FBC Melgar win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 07:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:00

Venue · Estadio Monumental U Marathon

Referee · Roberto Perez Gutierrez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Universitario

3-1-4-2

1 D. Romero

4 A. Santamaría

3 W. Riveros

2 C. Fara

23 J. Murrugarra

24 A. Polo

10 H. Calcaterra

17 J. Concha

33 C. Inga

18 G. Lapadula

20 A. Valera

Coach · F. Bustos

Substitutes

29 · A. Corzo

19 · É. Flores

8 · H. Fértoli

39 · P. Quispe

15 · J. Requena

77 · B. Reyna

11 · J. Rivera

25 · M. Vargas

30 · Lisandro Joel Alzugaray

FBC Melgar

4-2-3-1

21 J. Cabezudo

33 M. Lazo

23 J. Escobar

3 L. González

27 N. Cabanillas

25 K. Minda

24 W. Tandazo

7 C. Bordacahar

10 N. Quagliata

8 L. Guzmán

9 B. Cuesta

Coach · M. Rondelli

Substitutes

90 · J. Alcántar

12 · C. Cáceda

16 · J. Cáceres

80 · J. D´Arrigo

5 · A. Deneumostier

36 · P. Nunez

11 · J. Vidales

77 · F. Zanelatto

45 · Matias Zegarra

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Universitario

3-1-4-2

1 D. Romero

4 A. Santamaría

3 W. Riveros

2 C. Fara

23 J. Murrugarra

24 A. Polo

10 H. Calcaterra

17 J. Concha

33 C. Inga

18 G. Lapadula

20 A. Valera

Coach · F. Bustos

Substitutes

29 · A. Corzo

19 · É. Flores

8 · H. Fértoli

39 · P. Quispe

15 · J. Requena

77 · B. Reyna

11 · J. Rivera

25 · M. Vargas

30 · Lisandro Joel Alzugaray

FBC Melgar

4-2-3-1

21 J. Cabezudo

33 M. Lazo

23 J. Escobar

3 L. González

27 N. Cabanillas

25 K. Minda

24 W. Tandazo

7 C. Bordacahar

10 N. Quagliata

8 L. Guzmán

9 B. Cuesta

Coach · M. Rondelli

Substitutes

90 · J. Alcántar

12 · C. Cáceda

16 · J. Cáceres

80 · J. D´Arrigo

5 · A. Deneumostier

36 · P. Nunez

11 · J. Vidales

77 · F. Zanelatto

45 · Matias Zegarra

Our number · universitario winPublished 11 Oct 01:01

55% The market51%

Us55%

~~Market~~51%

We make Universitario a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · universitario win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universitario win	55%	51%	+4
Draw	25%	29%	−5
FBC Melgar win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Universitario or draw	80%	81%	−1
Universitario clean sheet	41%	–	–
FBC Melgar clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 8.2 7.0 3.2 1 12.8 11.6 5.1 2 10.6 9.4 4.2 3 5.8 5.2 2.3 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universitario down, FBC Melgar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,809 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.27 goals a meeting; 4 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universitario at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FBC Melgar away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Universitario, 0.90 for FBC Melgar. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.27

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~FBC 2–1 UNI · FBC 1–2 UNI · UNI 4–1 FBC · FBC 1–0 UNI

Form · last six in Primera División

UNIVERSITARIO

WWWDWL3–2 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–4

FBC MELGAR

WDLWWD3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Alianza Lima	27	+26	56
2	Universitario	27	+12	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	+15	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	+16	46
5	Cusco	27	+2	45
6	Cienciano	28	+8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	−9	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	+5	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	+8	38
10	Sport Boys	27	+3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	−7	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	−10	34
13	Atletico Grau	28	−5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	−3	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	−11	27
16	ADT	27	−13	25
17	UCV Moquegua	28	−19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	−18	20